TASS, February 7. The world's seismologists do not have enough data on earthquakes, nor do they have the necessary tools to predict powerful and unexpected earthquakes similar to the one that struck Turkey, Alexey Zavyalov, who heads the Continental Seismicity and Seismic Disaster Forecasting Laboratory at the Institute of Physics of the Earth at the Russian Academy of Sciences told TASS.
"We are unable at this time to predict fairly strong and sudden earthquakes in areas across the Earth where they are not expected. This is largely because seismology as a science is still very young. We have been essentially conducting full-fledged observations of subterranean activity just from the start of the 20th century and that is why we have not yet accumulated enough data about different types of earthquakes," Zavyalov explained. Neither Russian nor foreign scholars can make such predictions because they lack a complete understanding of the processes in the Earth’s interior and the adverse consequences for scientists themselves.
The expert recalled how Italian seismologists had incorrectly predicted the extent and the aftermath of the earthquake in L’Aquila in 2009. They were found guilty and imprisoned for a long time for "misinforming the population" and were held responsible for the death of about 300 people.
"Work like this has been underway abroad and in Kamchatka in Russia for more than 30 years, but such forecasts are purely scientific in nature and their accuracy remains low. Endeavors to enhance them are in progress, but we now know of about 600 precursors of earthquakes that could indicate an outbreak. Still, none of these signals provide 100% assurance that an earthquake will take place. Forecasts based on them are not yet ready to be made public so as not to cause unnecessary panic or other tragic consequences," he added.
A powerful 7.7-magnitude rocked Turkey’s Kahramanmaras province on Monday night. Aftershocks were felt in ten provinces, as well as in neighboring countries, such as Syria, where major damage was also reported. According to the latest information, more than 4,500 people were killed and over 26,000 people were injured in Turkey. The death toll in Syria is over 1,500, with more than 3,500 persons injured.