MOSCOW, January 16. /TASS/. Cyberthreats, a global trade war, the debt crisis in the US and military conflicts may serve as "black swans" for the global economy in 2025, Roscongress Foundation said in a report.
A "black swan" in economics refers to an unforeseen event with significant global consequences. "By definition, these events cannot be predicted, though an all-encompassing trade war could be a major risk for the global economy, with tariffs going through the roof and, as a consequence, another Great Depression in terms of a collapse of trade," the report said.
One of the most predictable crises is connected with the US debt issue, according to the report. Earlier, the country’s public debt exceeded $36 trillion, hitting a new all-time high.
The authors of the report also mentioned cyberthreats and possible damage to digital infrastructure, particularly undersea Internet cables, among this year’s "black swans." Cybercrime is already a growing concern, and the rise of generative artificial intelligence, capable of producing content and being used for attacks on large language models, could exacerbate the problem.
Other risks identified include the possibility of Iran, currently involved in multiple conflicts, opting for a scenario of heightened confrontation, as well as potential armed conflicts between North and South Korea or over Taiwan. "These events could trigger disastrous consequences for the global economy, though they are estimated as unlikely in 2025," authors said.