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Bank of Russia notes signs of slowdown in economic growth in the summer

The regulator believes that Russia's GDP will continue to slow down in the third quarter of 2024 under the influence of the growing effects of tight monetary conditions

MOSCOW, August 7. /TASS/. The first signs of a slight slowdown in the Russian economy appeared in June-July 2024, but its overheating did not weaken in the second quarter, according to the Bank of Russia.

"The pace of economic growth in the first quarter of 2024 was higher than the Bank of Russia's forecast, mainly due to the dynamics of domestic demand. According to [the regulator’s] estimates, the economy continued to grow at a high pace in the second quarter. According to operational data and survey data, the first signs of a slight slowdown in economic growth appeared in June-July," the regulator notes.

During the discussion of the key rate at the end of July, participants in the meeting of the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors also agreed that high inflationary pressure indicates that a significant positive output gap did not decrease, that is, economic overheating did not weaken in the second quarter.

The regulator believes that Russia's GDP will continue to slow down in the third quarter of 2024 under the influence of the growing effects of tight monetary conditions.

"According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, in the third quarter of 2024, the current GDP growth rates will continue to slow down under the influence of the growing effects of tight monetary conditions. As before, the main driver of growth will be high consumer and investment demand," the regulator says.

Earlier, the Bank of Russia raised its real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.5-4%. According to the regulator, this largely reflects new data on the dynamics of economic activity in the first half of 2024 and incoming operational data at the beginning of the third quarter. At the same time, tighter monetary conditions over the forecast period will affect the dynamics of economic activity: real GDP growth in 2025-2026 has been revised downwards by 0.5 percentage points, to 0.5-1.5% and 1-2%, respectively.

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