MURMANSK, October 10. /TASS/. The United States is concerned about Russia's growing capabilities in the Arctic and considers this region as a potential scene of geopolitical confrontation and a likely theater of military operations, but an open military conflict is ruled out, Doctor of Economics Alexey Fadeyev, the Deputy Chairman of the Public Council under the St. Petersburg Committee for Arctic Affairs, has told TASS.
The US Department of Defense last summer released a new version of the Arctic strategy, thus updating its approach to the region for the first time since 2019. The Pentagon said the update stemmed from changes in geopolitics and the Arctic region’s transformation into a scene of "strategic power competition."
"The United States must stand ready to meet the challenge alongside allies and partners," the strategy reads. In the fall, Canada announced plans for creating an Arctic security coalition with Northern European countries without Russia.
"The US has adopted several Arctic strategies, all of them being 'military' in nature," Fadeyev said. "The US is concerned about the expanding interaction between Russia and China in the Arctic, as well as Russia's growing capabilities in the region, which, it argues, potentially pose a threat to the United States and its allies. The Arctic region complements the US Department of Defense’s list of potential theaters of military operations, along with the Indo-Pacific, European, Middle Eastern and African regions."
The expert notes that the Arctic has always been positioned as a territory of cooperation, and not confrontation. However, in recent years, the US and its NATO allies have become noticeably more active there. They have regularly conducted large-scale military exercises in the region, deploying new Arctic military units, and increasing the intensity of strategic and reconnaissance aviation flights. Their strategic submarines carrying both nuclear and conventional high accuracy weapons have been patrolling the Arctic.
"The activity of the United States, Canada and Denmark has even exceeded the Cold War level," Fadeyev explained. "Arctic states have fast-tracked the upgrade of their own armed forces, bearing in mind the possible solution of certain tasks in the region. The situation is complicated by the absence of effective international security mechanisms in the Arctic, as well as the increasingly active behavior of non-regional states that will support the players who manage to offere them more favorable conditions for participation in Arctic projects. Military activity is also increasing on the Spitzbergen archipelago, where a telemetry station connected to the North Atlantic Alliance system is located. In the water areas around the archipelago, NATO combat aircraft have been practicing combat missions in the conditions of the Far North".
Conflict risks
All this arouses concerns and enhances the need for a response, but at the same time it is unlikely to trigger an open military conflict, Fadeyev believes. He says that Russia currently has indisputable geographic, economic and military advantages in the Arctic: it owns more than half of the Arctic shelf territory. It has the Northern and icebreaker fleets, and it has been actively developing the Northern Sea Route.
"The measures that Russia takes to protect its geopolitical interests in high latitudes look very timely. The key factor for success here may be the comprehensive development of the infrastructure of seaports and shipping links in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, the Barents, White and Pechora seas, as well as the establishment of a maritime operations headquarters to manage shipping. Increasing the economic efficiency of the Northern Sea Route may give Russia one of the key advantages in this geopolitical competition, taking into account the high military and transportation risks present on both sides of the Suez Canal," Fadeyev noted.
The expert believes that in addition to logistics, it is also important to continue developing base infrastructure and operational facilities in high-latitude territories, to equip the Russian Armed Forces with special weapons and gear adapted to Arctic conditions, and to ensure Russian presence in a number of areas, particularly on the Spitzbergen archipelago. However, as Fadeyev stresses, the programs for upgrading Russia's armed forces and increasing its military presence in the Arctic zone are not directed against any states in the region, although the US-led Western countries do have such concerns.
"The ability to work in partnership is one of the distinctive features of Russian cooperation in the Arctic, where a number of power supply projects with foreign partners have already been implemented, and where new initiatives of international cooperation are strategic in nature. I would like to express hope that the Arctic will retain the status of a territory of cooperation rather than economic and military standoff," Fadeyev concluded.