MOSCOW, December 9. /TASS/. Russian businessman Viktor Bout has been released from US captivity in a prisoner swap for basketball player Brittney Griner, China and Saudi Arabia seek to further boost ties and experts expect the European Union’s ninth package of sanctions to cause no serious damage to Russia. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Businessman-for-basketball player swap completed in historic exchange deal
Russian businessman Viktor Bout was exchanged for US basketball player Brittney Griner at the Abu Dhabi airport. This is how the years-long story of Moscow’s efforts to release the Russian from a US jail ended, Vedomosti writes.
Bout was arrested in Thailand in 2008 at Washington’s request. Charged with arms trafficking and supporting terrorism, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2012. The Russian did not plead guilty. As for Griner, she was detained at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport in February 2022 after vape cartridges containing hashish oil had been found in her carry-on luggage. The American was eventually handed a nine-year prison term on drug smuggling charges.
As far as international law goes, the swap was correct, Partner at the NSP law firm Sergey Glandin pointed out. According to him, the gravity of and the balance between the crimes committed matter in terms of prison exchanges only in preliminary negotiations. At the same time, the parties may agree to use other formulas than the one-for-one principle.
Meanwhile, the swap does not mark an improvement in Russia-US relations, Director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies at Moscow State University Yury Rogulev emphasized. In his opinion, similar exchanges that took place in the Cold War era did not have much impact on the overall logic of confrontation between Moscow and Washington. The expert noted that it was crucial for US President Joe Biden to bring the basketball player back home as it was one of his political promises.
Political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko, in turn, stressed that Bout’s return was "a signal of ongoing attempts to free Russian nationals." "There are a lot of myths around the swap but people feel positive about the fact that a Russian citizen has finally been exchanged," he added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev asks NATO for cluster munitions and long-range missiles
Analysts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War agree with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conclusion that the special operation in Ukraine can turn out to be a long, drawn-out process. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky told Politico he believed that peace might come to the country next year. His belief could be rooted in the defense budgets of the United States and other NATO countries, aimed at supporting Kiev, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, Washington has provided over $20 bln worth of military aid to the Ukrainian armed forces in 2022. For reference, Russia’s 2022 defense budget stands at about $75 bln. Next year, Kiev plans to spend more than $31 bln on defense. "If we add nearly 22 billion dollars that the US is ready to give Kiev, as well as about ten billion euros from other NATO countries, then Ukraine’s defense expenditures will approach those of Russia," military expert retired Colonel Nikolai Shulgin noted. "Such capacities and expenditures, as well as no less significant practical military aid from NATO members, have already made it possible to maintain the Ukrainian military’s combat capability at the proper level," the expert added.
However, Kiev wants more. CNN reported, citing US and Ukrainian sources, that the Zelensky regime had asked the Biden administration to provide them with cluster munition warheads. Other reports said that unmanned aerial vehicles with a range of 1,000 kilometers and more were being developed and provided to the Ukrainian army. Lloyd Austin said in this regard that Washington did not prevent Kiev from developing long-range weapons. "Apparently, high-precision weapons capable of hitting targets at a distance of several hundred kilometers from the line of contact are being developed in Ukraine with the assistance of US specialists," military expert retired Lieutenant General Yury Netkachev noted.
"Under these circumstances, the Russian Armed Forces need to significantly increase their impact on Ukraine’s military potential. Russia has the tools to make sure that damage is inflicted upon the enemy, and force it to make peace on Moscow’s terms. This requires decisive actions to end the special military operation as soon as possible and secure a victory," the expert stressed.
Kommersant: Saudi Arabia welcomes Chinese president as top VIP guest
Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Saudi Arabia for the first time in six years. China has become the main source of foreign investment for the Middle East and one of the main trading partners for the Persian Gulf countries, which certainly worries the US, Kommersant writes.
For Xi Jinping, his Saudi tour is the third overseas trip since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier, he went to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Cooperation between Beijing and Riyadh has strongly increased since the Chinese president’s previous visit to Saudi Arabia in 2016. According to the Saudi news agency SPA, China was the kingdom’s leading trade partner over the past five years. However, the parties aren’t going to stop there. Saudi and Chinese companies inked 34 investment deals in various areas after the visit had begun. In addition, the Saudi king and the Chinese president signed a comprehensive agreement on strategic cooperation.
"Beijing’s interests in the Middle East, as well as China’s foreign policy in general, are very pragmatic, particularly in comparison to the US. China does not seek to make anyone choose sides but simply boosts economic ties," said Temur Umarov, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. However, in his words, the more influence Beijing has on a region’s economy, the more impact it has on the political situation there, too. "If we look at the Xinjiang situation, we will see that despite discrimination against the Muslims in this region of China, not a single Arab country has protested. The reason is that China is too important an economic partner to spoil relations with it," Umarov explained.
Experts point out that so far, no one can replace the United States as a guarantor of strategic stability for Arab countries, primarily for the Gulf monarchies, especially because Beijing pays almost no attention to political issues. At the same time, Washington is certainly concerned about growing cooperation between China and Arab countries in the area of weapons, as well as in the field of digital technology.
Media: Experts expect no serious damage from EU’s ninth package of sanctions on Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced the ninth package of measures against Moscow. The individuals and companies that will be blacklisted this time will be revealed after the package is approved and published in the Official Journal of the European Union, Vedomosti writes.
The European Commission chief highlighted a ban on the export of parts for the production of drones in Russia and other countries that can sell them to Moscow. This measure will hardly damage Russia’s defense industry because it is relatively independent from overseas supplies, Associate Professor with the World Economy Department at the Higher School of Economics’ Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs Alexander Zaitsev pointed out. Also, Brussels’ statements are unlikely to affect third countries willing to cooperate with Russia, he added.
In addition, the European Commission suggests sanctioning another three Russian banks, including the Russian Regional Development Bank. "The Russian Regional Development Bank operates inside the country and does not conduct foreign economic transactions, so the restrictions won’t cause any damage to it," Zaitsev noted.
The ninth package of sanctions will finish off the remaining economic relations between Russia and Europe, but Moscow has come to understand that restrictions will keep piling up and there is a need to look for other markets and suppliers, Valdai Discussion Club Program Director Ivan Timofeev emphasized. Many banks already are under US sanctions, which Brussels is mostly replicating, and many financial institutions either operate on the domestic market or have left Europe, so the economy can’t be expected to suffer any fatal damage, Timofeev concluded.
Director of the Center for Business Tendency Studies at Higher School of Economics Georgy Ostapkovich, in turn, told Izvestia, that the most crucial measures had already been taken and Russia had largely adapted to them. "The goal of the ninth package is to show that they will continue to put pressure on Russia. However, the ninth package does not currently carry any fundamental threats to the Russian economy," the expert elaborated.
Vedomosti: Russian coal exports start to rebound
Russian coal exports fell by 8.2% to 167.4 mln metric tons year on year in the first ten months of 2022, two sources familiar with the Energy Ministry’s statistics told Vedomosti. However, coal exports rose in October to 17.5 mln metric tons, reaching the highest monthly level since July 2022, when the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian coal imports.
Russian coal was sanctioned after Moscow’s special military operation had been launched in Ukraine in February 2022. As a result, Russian companies started redirecting coal exports from the European market to Asia.
The Russian Energy Ministry expects "a slight decline" in coal production in 2022 compared to 2021, a ministry official told the newspaper. He pointed out that Russia’s coal industry "is actively changing logistics" in terms of exports. "Further developments in the coal sector will depend on how long it will take Russian coal importers to adapt to the situation and how quick the Russian coal industry shifts its focus to new markets," the ministry said in a comment.
Kirill Rodionov from the Institute for the Development of Technologies in the Fuel and Energy Complex confirms that Russia’s coal output and exports "were actively rebounding" in October compared to September. Finam analyst Alexey Kalachev added that coal supplies to South Korea probably remained at last year’s level, while exports to China, India, Turkey and Morocco had increased.
High coal prices make it possible to maintain appropriate margins for Russian coal producers in 2022 even though they had to start offering export discounts after the launch of the special military operation.
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