MOSCOW, October 26. /TASS/. The State Duma, lower house of the Russian parliament, has adopted in the first reading the draft federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2023 and the planning period 2024-2025.
According to the document, the budget spending will amount to 29 trillion rubles ($473 bln) in 2023, 29.4 trillion rubles ($480 bln) in 2024 and 29.2 trillion rubles ($477 bln) in 2025.
Revenues will amount to 26.1 trillion rubles ($426 bln) in 2023, 27.2 trillion rubles ($444 bln) in 2024 and 27.9 trillion rubles ($455bln) in 2025.
According to forecasts, budget deficit in 2023 will amount to 2% of GDP (or about 3 trillion rubles ($49 bln)). The authorities are expected to close it mainly through borrowing. At the same time, the budget deficit is expected to gradually reduce to 0.7% in 2025.
The draft budget was based on the baseline forecast for Russia’s socio-economic development for 2023-2025, which assumes a gradual decrease in prices for oil of the Russian export brand Urals (from $80 per barrel in 2022 to $65 in 2025), a moderate depreciation of the ruble (from 68.1 to 72.2 rubles per dollar) and a return to the inflation target - 4% - already by the end of 2024 (from 12.4% in 2022).
Also, according to the baseline forecast, the Russian economy will switch to recovery growth at the beginning of 2023, and by the end of 2024, most of the main indicators, including GDP, industrial production, investment in fixed assets and indicators of the standard of living of the population, will exceed pre-crisis values in comparable prices.
The upper limit of the state domestic debt is set on January 1, 2024 in the amount of 20.697 trillion rubles ($440 bln), on January 1, 2025 - 22.804 trillion rubles ($372 bln), on January 1, 2026 - 24.994 trillion rubles ($407 bln).
The upper limit of the state external debt is set on January 1, 2024 in the amount of $66.6 billion (63.4 billion euros), on January 1, 2025 - $68.1 billion (63.1 billion euros), by January 1, 2026 - $68.0 billion (61.2 billion euros). The inflation rate in 2023 will not exceed 5.5%; in 2024 - 4.0%; in 2025 - 4.0%.
The volume of the National Wealth Fund, according to the forecast, in 2023 will amount to 8.987 trillion rubles ($146 bln) (6% of GDP); in 2024 - 6.252 trillion rubles ($102 bln). (3.9% of GDP), in 2025 - 5.947 trillion rubles ($97 bln) (3.5% of GDP).
The dynamics of the main components of the budgets of Russia’s budget system for 2023-2025 is characterized by a decrease in the share of revenues in GDP by 2025 compared to 2022 from 35.7% to 34.3% and expenditures - from 36.6% to 34.8%. The deficit of the budgets of the Russian budget system is planned with an increase of more than two times in 2023 compared to the estimate of 2022 and will amount to 2% of GDP, in 2024 and 2025 - with a decrease compared to the previous year (1.4% and 0.5 % of GDP, respectively).
As noted in the conclusion of the Accounts Chamber, like in previous years social policy spending will account for the largest amount of expenditures (31.5%). With an increase in spending in absolute terms, the share of spending on social policy in GDP in the planning period decreases (from 11.6% of GDP in 2023 to 10.9% of GDP in 2025).
The shares of spending on education and healthcare in GDP in 2023-2025 will remain at the level of 2022 (3.6-3.7% of GDP and 4-4.1% of GDP, respectively). Spending on the national economy will decrease compared to 2022 in absolute terms and relative to GDP (from 5.6% of GDP in 2022 to 4.7% of GDP in 2025). The total share of spending on national defense, national security and law enforcement activities for 2023-2025 will average 5.8% of GDP and will increase compared to the same indicator in 2022 (5.2% of GDP).
The expenditures of the budgets of the budget system in nominal terms will increase in 2023 compared to 2022 by 6%, and - by 51% compared to 2019, expenditures on the national economy - by 44%, education - by 36%, healthcare - by 62 %.