MOSCOW, October 13. /TASS/. The era of growth in global oil consumption is coming to an end and will end in the period until 2030, follows from the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2020 (WEO), received by TASS on Tuesday.
"The era of rising global oil demand will come to an end within 10 years, but the shape of the economic recovery is a key uncertainty," the report said. However, even under the most favorable scenarios for oil (there are four in the report), demand will plateau until 2030. If the fight against coronavirus drags on, then global oil consumption will no longer exceed 100 mln barrels per day.
This is partly influenced by consumer behavior, the IEA points out. "The longer lockdowns last, the more consumer behavior changes. For example, work from home and the habit of avoiding air travel has become the norm," the agency's experts explain. By contrast, other shifts in consumer behavior are helping to sustain oil demand. Among them are the fear of public transport, the increased popularity of SUVs and the delayed replacement of old cars.
The IEA's Stated Policies Scenario envisions taking control of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021. In this case, the demand for oil will increase by 5 million barrels per day, but it will only reach the pre-crisis level in 2023.
At the same time, the peak of demand has already passed in developed countries, where oil consumption is below the 2005 maximum. By 2030, demand in EU countries, for example, will be 5 million barrels per day below the 2019 level. However, this decline will be fully offset by an increase in oil consumption in developing countries - by 9 million barrels per day by 2030.
If the fight against coronavirus is delayed (Delayed Recovery Scenario), then oil consumption will reach pre-crisis levels only in 2027.
Finally, the most radical scenario (Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Case), according to which humanity sets a goal to reduce CO2 emissions to zero by 2050, assumes that oil demand will drop from 98 million barrels per day in 2019 to 65 million barrels per day by 2030.