MOSCOW, April 13. /TASS/. US-Iran talks in Islamabad fell apart after nearly 21 hours of negotiations ending without an agreement; Ukrainian forces violated the Easter ceasefire thousands of times despite formally agreeing to it; and Hungary’s parliamentary vote points to a shift in power, with Peter Magyar’s Tisza party poised to replace Viktor Orban. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Failed US-Iran talks expose widening rift over nuclear issue, Gulf security
US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan concluded in Islamabad on the night of April 12 after nearly 21 hours of discussions, ultimately yielding no results. The US delegation included Vice President J. D. Vance, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, while the Iranian side was represented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Each side ultimately blamed the other for the failure of the negotiations. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe the talks were destined to fail due to irreconcilable positions on Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
The principal stumbling blocks remain control over the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran insisting on a new regime governing the passage of vessels, as well as nuclear energy issues, according to Axios and the Fars News Agency, citing sources. In addition, the Iranian delegation stated during the talks that it is unwilling to relinquish its stockpiles of enriched uranium.
Trump wrote on his page on Truth Social that US and Iranian representatives had managed to reach agreement on all issues except the nuclear program. He therefore ordered the US Navy to begin a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and to detain vessels that had paid Tehran for passage along this route.
This move could primarily harm Washington’s allies in the Persian Gulf, according to Ilya Vaskin, junior research fellow at the Center for Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia Studies at Higher School of Economics. "It will almost certainly lead to a reduction in their revenues from oil and gas exports. Arab states will likely attempt to pressure Trump into lifting the blockade. The question, however, is whether he will give in to such pressure," the expert said.
At this stage, US-Iran negotiations are effectively doomed to fail, Ismagil Gibadullin, editor-in-chief of the website Iran-1979, told Vedomosti. "Even if the US leadership had a unified, consolidated position that it was prepared to present in negotiations, the principal initiator of the entire regional war, namely Israel, is not interested in US-Iran dialogue because it believes it has not achieved any of its objectives in the conflict," he noted.
The very fact of direct talks between the US and Iran after 40 days of war is unprecedented in itself and reflects the failure of Washington’s pressure-based diplomacy, Iran expert Anastasia Kislitsyna added. In her view, a potential agreement will only be possible once the US becomes more willing to negotiate. For now, the current context does not appear sufficiently compelling for Trump to bring the war to an end. "Tehran and its regional allies have the capacity to respond to these challenges. Therefore, we will have to wait for suitable conditions for a deal to emerge. Even at this stage, it is clear that enormous collective diplomatic efforts will be required to stabilize the situation," the expert said.
Izvestia: Ukrainian forces violate Easter ceasefire thousands of times despite formal backing
Despite assurances from Vladimir Zelensky, Ukrainian armed forces failed to observe the Easter ceasefire. In the early hours of Sunday alone, Russian military personnel recorded nearly 2,000 violations of the ceasefire regime. Although no missile strikes or attacks involving heavy drones were carried out, Ukrainian formations on the ground continued firing. Experts told Izvestia that the Kiev leadership’s agreement to the ceasefire was largely formal and that the Ukrainian side once again demonstrated its inability to reach binding agreements.
"Zelensky formally supported the ceasefire, but armed formations of the Kiev regime on the ground did not always comply with it," Roman Shkurlatov, chairman of the public organization Officers of Russia and deputy commander for military-political affairs of the BARS-Kursk volunteer brigade, told Izvestia. "It must be acknowledged that there were no large-scale strikes. Strategic strike drones did not target energy infrastructure during the ceasefire period. However, the front continued to operate according to its own dynamics," he added.
"At the political level, the appropriate statements were made, including in order to save face before Western sponsors," Shkurlatov added. "If Russia had declared a ceasefire and Ukraine had rejected it, that would not have been politically advantageous for Kiev," he said.
At the same time, the negotiation format involving Russia, the United States, and Ukraine has not been formally discontinued, despite the prolonged pause following the round held on February 17-18 in Geneva. In recent months, Ukraine has maintained a principled stance, particularly on the issue of territorial compromises, which has effectively stalled the negotiating process, Murad Sadygzade, president of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, told Izvestia. He believes that progress will only be possible if tensions surrounding Iran subside in the near future.
At that point, the United States would be able to reallocate its attention and resources toward the Ukrainian track, whereas at present key institutions of the American government, including the Pentagon and the US Department of State, are primarily focused on the situation in the Middle East. However, the outcome of the negotiations in Islamabad does little to inspire optimism.
Vedomosti: Hungary’s Orban defeated as newcomer Tisza party gains parliamentary majority
Participating in national elections for the first time, Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza), led by Member of the European Parliament Peter Magyar, is poised for a decisive victory in Hungary’s regular parliamentary elections held on April 12, according to data from the National Election Office. As a result, Magyar is most likely to become Hungary’s new prime minister, replacing Orban, the long-serving leader of the conservative Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Alliance, who has held office continuously since 2010. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe Orban’s likely defeat stems largely from voter fatigue with his long tenure, while the future trajectory of Magyar’s policies remains uncertain, particularly in foreign affairs.
Voter turnout in the current election reached a record level, standing at 77.8% half an hour before polling stations closed (by comparison, final turnout in the 2022 elections was 69.5%).
One of the key differences between the two parties’ platforms lies in foreign policy: unlike Orban, Tisza adopts a more loyal stance toward European Union institutions in Brussels and does not display a favorable attitude toward Russia, Vedomosti writes.
Orban’s defeat will be associated personally with him rather than with his party, according to Alexander Kamkin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government. His long, uninterrupted tenure as prime minister may have generated dissatisfaction among younger voters, and given Orban’s advancing age, there are grounds to view a potential defeat as the end of his political career.
At the same time, it is noteworthy that Magyar and Orban share similarities on many aspects of their platforms, though not in foreign policy, where the opposition tends to adopt more pro-Ukrainian positions. While Orban’s sharp criticism of the EU has become routine, it remains unclear in which direction Magyar’s political course will develop, Kamkin concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Zelensky seeks to rally EU support in Rome amid waning attention
According to media reports, a meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled for Wednesday in Rome. On the same day, another meeting of the contact group in the Ramstein format is planned, where representatives of Kiev also intend to discuss new deliveries of air defense systems. It is evident that the issue of intensifying military and financial assistance is a top priority for Zelensky, making it important for him to secure Italy’s support. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that while Rome has not opposed the Kiev authorities, unlike the Hungarian leadership, it has also not been among the most active supporters.
However, the economic situation in European countries has worsened markedly due to the Iranian conflict, with discussions of a potential energy crisis also emerging. Moreover, the prospects for a Middle Eastern settlement remain uncertain, the newspaper writes.
As it appears, the position of the Kiev authorities has not changed, and they continue to rely heavily on the support of European countries, Oleg Barabanov, a professor at MGIMO University and program director of the Valdai Discussion Club, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to him, much will also depend on the parliamentary elections in Hungary.
"Italian authorities have taken a fairly balanced position. They have not been among Ukraine’s opponents, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, but neither have they been at the forefront of its supporters. It is therefore important for Zelensky to persuade Rome to provide more active assistance to Ukraine, not least because Italy is a major country capable of prioritizing its own national interests," the expert concluded.
Kommersant: Global LPG supply disruptions drive prices higher as Russia sees 15% weekly surge
Difficulties with the supply of liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) on the global market have led to an increase in their quotations and selling prices among the largest global producers. Russia has not remained unaffected: over the past week, the price of LPG on the exchange has surged by more than 15%. However, experts believe the spike is temporary and leave open the possibility of stabilization in global prices provided the market is supplied with sufficient volumes, for example through increased deliveries from the United States, Kommersant writes.
Experts attributed the price increase to supply disruptions from the Middle East and risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 30% of global seaborne LPG trade is transported.
Ivan Timonin, senior manager at the consulting company Implementa, noted that in early April Saudi Aramco raised its official selling price for propane and butane by 35-50% month-on-month, to approximately $750 and $800 per ton, respectively. In the first weeks of April, LPG was trading on the spot market at a premium to these levels due to delivery delays, rising freight rates, and the redistribution of flows - primarily driven by increased exports from the United States to Asia, the expert said.
However, the expert believes that current prices largely reflect a geopolitical premium and logistical constraints rather than a fundamental shortage of the resource, which is evident from market reactions. He told the newspaper that as the conflict has partially de-escalated and shipping has begun to recover in early April, downward pressure on prices has already started to emerge, although volatility remains high.
Olga Osharova, director of S+, recalls that military actions in the Middle East have directly affected numerous production facilities, including the gas processing complex in Juaima and the oil and gas complex in South Pars. Exports of LPG from Iran have declined from 1 mln to 0.3 mln tons per month. Overall, the expert noted, 10-15% of global LPG supply has been removed from the market. The United States is attempting to offset the lost Middle Eastern volumes by increasing exports, but is unable to fully compensate for the shortfall.
As a result, LPG prices in Asian markets are currently 40-55% higher than February levels, while in Europe they are up by 35-40%.
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