MOSCOW, July 18. /TASS/. Experts call for bolstering Crimean Bridge defenses against future sabotage attacks; Moscow suspends participation in Black Sea grain deal, but leaves door open to possible return; and Hungary set to officially ratify Sweden’s NATO accession ahead of Turkey. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Experts call for better Crimean Bridge defenses against future sabotage attacks
The Ukrainian terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge in the early hours of July 17 was targeted primarily at the span’s pillars, but these structures were designed to withstand earthquakes and nuclear attacks, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. The Russian Transport Ministry confirmed that the pillars remained intact. In the morning of July 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin was briefed on the incident and instructed that the facility be repaired and stranded vacationers be provided with assistance, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
The National Guard’s maritime brigade is responsible for protecting the waters adjacent to the bridge, military historian Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia. "For this purpose, they have been equipped with three to four Grachonok-type motor boats, and they may have other watercraft as well," he emphasized. "The Navy likely also plays a role in efforts to protect the bridge, with naval warships being used for that purpose. And, no doubt, there are air defenses stationed on both sides. The Pantsir and S-400 missile systems are reportedly being deployed for this purpose. Certainly, the Crimean Bridge is a very important facility and it should be guarded accordingly," the expert concluded.
Avoiding high-damage attacks on the Crimean Bridge in the future will require a careful analysis of how such attacks may potentially be carried out and with what means, Admiral Valentin Selivanov, former chief of staff of the Russian Navy, told the newspaper. "It’s clear now that strikes can be delivered from the air, from the sea and from underwater," he explained, saying that Russia has the means for ensuring underwater, sea and air defense. "Therefore, how to better deploy and use these properly should be more thoroughly thought through. We need a layered defense, both above and under the bridge. And several lines of defense facing Ukraine should be set up, as well," Selivanov said, based on the assumption that Ukraine will not stop trying to attack the bridge as long as the special military operation is ongoing.
Media: Moscow exits Black Sea grain deal, but leaves door open to possible return
On Monday, July 17, Russia rejected a further extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, or so-called grain deal, an agreement initially concluded in Istanbul in July 2022 to ensure the safe export of Ukrainian grain and foodstuffs through humanitarian corridors in the Black Sea. Moscow said, however, that it may consider returning to the Istanbul initiative if the provisions of the deal allowing for exports of Russian agricultural products to world markets can be duly implemented. The international community denounced Moscow’s decision, while Turkey, which had brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative jointly with the United Nations, expressed hope that the deal could be reanimated. Although upbeat statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to prevent grain prices from soaring on major commodity exchanges, experts claimed that "the price increase was largely speculative."
SovEcon Director Andrei Sizov said in an interview with Kommersant that the market is likely questioning the seriousness of Russia’s rhetoric as it expects Ukrainian food exports to continue. According to Sizov, in general Ukraine will be able to fulfill its grain export plan for this season even without using deep-water terminals on the Black Sea. Ukraine is already making active use of the Danube as a route for grain exports and recently sent the first Handymax class vessel via this channel, carrying around 20,000 metric tons of corn. Also, it exports foodstuffs via the European Union and to customers within the bloc itself. As for Russia, in July it may export a record 3.7 million to 4.1 million metric tons of wheat against an average volume of 2.8 million metric tons, SovEcon has said.
Meanwhile, Russian farmers’ associations welcomed the news that Moscow had terminated its participation in the grain deal. The pact had led to price discounts that benefited neither the country at large nor Russian farmers and exporters. Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevsky hailed the decision, terming it as the right move and saying it would prop up Russian wheat prices. "It [the deal] should never have been concluded at all," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Zlochevsky does not expect the deal’s suspension to cause any negative consequences for Russian farmers. On the contrary, the negative factors linked to it will now be eliminated, he argued, citing the marked Russian wheat price discount compared to the prices of Russia’s foreign competitors.
Oils and Fats Union Executive Director Mikhail Maltsev approved of Moscow’s decision to withdraw from what he described as an economically unprofitable agreement for his segment of the Russian agribusiness sector. The industry expert now expects global sunflower oil and meal prices to get back to normal, with corresponding export prices returning to a fair level.
Izvestia: Hungary set to officially green-light Sweden’s NATO accession ahead of Turkey
Budapest is likely to formally ratify Sweden’s NATO application in the fall, and will do so ahead of Ankara, Hungarian Deputy Parliament Speaker Dora Duro told Izvestia, noting, however, that no official information about when lawmakers would convene a hearing on the issue was available yet. Hungarian officials have said they will not oppose Sweden’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance if Turkey gives the go-ahead, which occurred just prior to NATO’s Vilnius summit. However, the bilateral relationship between Budapest and Stockholm remains tense and the relevant contradictions will hardly be eliminated once the Nordic kingdom joins the bloc.
For Budapest, blocking Sweden’s NATO membership has mostly been seen as an opportunity to remind its European allies of Hungary’s longstanding claims, show its important role and extract as much political benefit as possible from the situation, said analyst Nikita Lipunov of the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). "Even before Ankara approved [Sweden’s accession], it was clear that Budapest would not stand alone against the alliance and that it would back Sweden’s bid. In the end, Hungary’s claims against the Nordic country are not as irreconcilable as Turkey’s are," the expert told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, the alliance’s expansion to Sweden will seriously affect military security in the region. According to Lipunov, this move will strengthen NATO’s northeastern flanks, as they will span the entire Nordic-Baltic region, while the Baltic Sea itself will actually become an inland sea for the bloc, or a "NATO lake."
"Given the close links between Northern European countries in the political, defense, transport and other areas, the northeastern flanks will become more integrated and interconnected in military terms," Lipunov warned. "This be a gamechanger for Europe’s military and defense situation and create risks for Russian security along its western border," he concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: First team of Ukrainian pilots ready to be trained on F-16s
Kiev has already put forward the first team of Ukrainian pilots for F-16 training. Although Washington announced the decision to permit such training on Monday, July 17, the Pentagon is still debating whether the fighter jets will yield the expected results, or whether accelerated deliveries of US-made Abrams tanks or cluster munitions may prove a more effective gamechanger. Former US Assistant Treasury Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea insisted on the need for mass use of cluster munitions to put some pep in Ukraine’s stalled counteroffensive, citing the wisdom of fabled Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu.
Ukrainian pilots are ready to be trained on F-16s, Ukrainian Air Force Spokesman Yury Ignat told a telethon on Monday. According to him, pilots had been waiting for months for the landmark decision to be made before finally receiving the go-ahead signal at last week’s NATO summit in Vilnius. Under the plan, the first group of pilots will eventually be followed by more teams further on, as the program calls for long-term training.
Among other things, at the Vilnius summit the NATO allies resolved to expand and accelerate weapons supplies to Kiev, Yury Knutov, military expert and director of the Museum of Air Defense Forces, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, now that Ukraine has failed to make any major breakthroughs a month-and-a-half since its much-hyped counteroffensive finally began. In particular, the announcement was made that NATO will send 50 French-made SCALP missiles and more HIMARS rockets, as well as Leopard and Abrams tanks. Even if Abrams tanks are delivered in the fall, it would be impossible to deploy them effectively on the battlefield, which Washington may well have taken into account, as it announces more weapons supplies, on the one hand, while on the other realizing only too well that any use of such new supplies in Ukraine’s offensive is unlikely, Knutov explained. However, he continued, it is the F-16 aircraft that may pose the greatest threat today, as they are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, specifically the B61 bomb. And using them in the Ukraine conflict will apparently indicate the West’s resolve to escalate things further. In response, the Russian military will have to use the S-300V missile systems or the Su-30 or Su-35 fighters, which can hit targets at longer distances. Also, Russia will have to deliver strikes on those airfields hosting the US aircraft. Only jump airfields will likely be used on Ukrainian soil, while the bulk of newer warplanes will be deployed and serviced at airfields in Poland or Romania, he argued. But, judging from how Russian forces have acted so far, only Ukrainian facilities will be targeted, he concluded.
Kommersant: Russia redirecting its diesel exports to Asia, South America
Kommersant has learned that Russian diesel exports saw an 11% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2023, despite the EU embargo and price ceiling. Turkey was the largest importer, followed by Saudi Arabia and Brazil, which became the second-largest buyer in July. Russia has also been actively exporting the fuel to Africa, which accounts for more than 20% of its exports. Analysts say that Russian oil producers benefit more from diesel exports than from crude exports, despite the discounts.
Most European countries have stopped buying Russian fuels since February, when the EU and the G7 introduced a price ceiling and imposed a ban on Russian petroleum products. As a result, Russia was forced to redirect the bulk of its fuel exports to alternate markets. While France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland were the largest importers of Russian diesel in the first half of 2022, more exotic jurisdictions replaced them this year. Turkey was the largest buyer of Russian diesel, increasing its share in January-June to 30% from 8% in the same period last year. Saudi Arabia and Brazil accounted for a mere 11% of exports, with Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and the UAE coming next with some 4%, and Ghana accounting for slightly less than 3%.
The Russian diesel market was more export-oriented in the past two decades, Viktor Katona at Kpler said, but the situation has changed, and Russia had to find new markets, for example, in Turkey and Brazil, after the oil price ceiling was introduced, he explained.
Diesel exports have been on the rise since June amid spring maintenance at oil refineries and an increase in diesel production by Russian companies, fuel expert Mikhail Turukalov told Kommersant. In addition, he said, freight costs and discounts for Russian products have decreased lately, making exports more attractive. Diesel becoming more expensive overseas and the ruble weakening also support Russian diesel exports, he said.
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