Izvestia: Nord Stream 2 fully ready for operation
Nord Stream 2 has become fully operational since the second string of the gas pipeline was filled on December 29, according to an announcement during a videoconference with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the president, the launch of the pipeline will resolve the issue of stabilizing prices in the European market. Meanwhile, the German Bundestag told Izvestia that gas from Russia is indispensable for the energy balance of Germany. However, red tape around certification postponed the pipeline's launch.
Now both strings of Nord Stream 2 are fully ready for operation, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said. According to the plan and design requirements, the line is filled with 177 mln cubic meters of so-called technical gas.
Despite the project’s technical readiness to be launched, it is hampered by bureaucracy. Thus, following the announcement of the decision to suspend the certification process, the pipeline’s operator - Nord Stream 2 AG - announced that it was taking the necessary steps to ensure compliance with the applicable rules and regulations. That is, to set up a subsidiary company. The company’s press service told Izvestia, their position on this issue has not changed. "Our company is taking this step to comply with applicable rules and regulations. We are not commenting on the details of the procedure, its timing or the impact of the timing on putting the gas pipeline into operation," Nord Stream 2 AG noted.
The Bundestag, Germany’s Federal Parliament, after approving the project at the national level, will transfer the project to the EU level. And this will certainly lead to delays, which can be avoided, said Stefan Keuter, a Bundestag legislator from the Alternative for Germany party in an interview with the newspaper. According to him, Germany needs a stable power supply with baseload power sources, and gas from Russia is indispensable for the country’s energy balance.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India gains foothold in Central Asia with help from Russia
Russia and India have decided to boost interaction in Central Asia. According to Indian media, a document was signed stipulating in particular that the Indians will be able to supply the former Soviet republics with spare parts for those types of weapons that Russia and India manufacture jointly. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, that Moscow's actions are influenced by the fact that it is not happy with China’s growing influence in the region.
New Delhi’s growing influence in Central Asia affects the confrontation between India and China. Not only did the border dispute between the two powers in the Himalayas escalate, but politicians in India accuse Beijing of arming their everlasting adversary, Pakistan, to the teeth.
This puts Moscow in an awkward position, the newspaper writes. In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Director of the Center for Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov noted that boosting India's diplomatic efforts and its interaction with Russia in Central Asia would certainly not please Beijing. "India’s ambitions, which considers itself the largest democracy in the world population-wise, may cause some inconvenience to Russia as well. New Delhi does not want to weaken Moscow's position at all. But the Central Asian regimes, depending on Moscow economically and militarily, now have room for maneuvering. They can now bargain with us."
As for armaments, India wants to export both its own armaments and spare parts for Soviet equipment. It supplies military equipment to countries such as Myanmar and Bangladesh. Now it's Central Asia's turn. However, these countries are used to receiving weapons from Russia and China for free, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia and Belarus seek military integration
Moscow and Minsk are exhibiting complete solidarity and intend to expand industrial cooperation. Experts, however, noted that military programs are now coming to the fore in cooperation. Confirming this, Presidents Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Vladimir Putin of Russia agreed to hold joint military exercises at the beginning of the year. Lukashenko, meeting in St. Petersburg with Putin on Thursday, proposed not to pause the joint exercises. The Russian head of state, in turn, said that he had accepted proposals to hold military exercises and that they would be held at the beginning of 2022, in February-March, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Thus, Belarus and Russia have agreed on cooperation in the aviation sector, as well as on Belarusian manufacturers’ access to state purchases in Russia. Lukashenko thanked Russia and Putin personally for their support.
Minsk's position on military cooperation is a decisive factor for Lukashenko’s fate, who needs Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay in power, the newspaper writes. However, the situation has changed. "Russia has entered into a tough conflict with the West and is issuing ultimatums. In this situation, Putin needs Lukashenko as a factor in this escalating conflict," political scientist Valery Karbalevich told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "If relations between Russia and the West worsen, then I do not rule out the appearance of some Russian units in Belarus, and a surge in the number of joint exercises," Karbalevich said.
Meanwhile, according to the expert, things won’t come to the point of placing nukes in Belarus, as Lukashenko had earlier spoken about, threatening the West. "I don’t think that Russia is ready to transfer its nuclear weapons to anyone on any territory," the expert said.
Vedomosti: GDP slowdown and expensive oil? What awaits the Russian economy in 2022
Vedomosti put together a consensus forecast for 2022 on chief macroeconomic indicators - GDP growth, inflation, the ruble exchange rate, oil prices, and the key rate. Thus, next year, GDP growth will be up to 2.3%, according to consensus. Not a single expert is expecting the economy to grow by less than 1.5%, but no one assessed the prospects for an increase in GDP above 2.8%.
Russia’s economic growth will be buttressed by the expected control of the coronavirus situation and the weakening of restrictions, the persistence of high energy prices, and the easing of the OPEC+ deal, Chief Analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev told the newspaper. Factors slowing down GDP growth will be the curtailment of monetary and budgetary incentives and the high base effect in 2021, Chief Analyst at Promsvyazbank Denis Popov predicted. The oil price range, according to industry gurus, will be within the area of $65-81.7 per barrel.
Next year, the price dynamics for Brent oil will be restrained or move slightly downward, Popov said. He expects Brent at $65-70 per barrel. The curtailment of the stimulus program in the United States and expectations of a sharp increase in interest rates, along with a slowdown in the world economy, primarily from the globe’s largest consumer China, as well as the sale of stocks from strategic reserves and the expansion of supply by OPEC+ countries will play against the rise in prices.
Associate Professor Sergey Ermolaev from the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics believes that energy prices will primarily depend on how quickly the pandemic ends. "If it resolves quickly, oil prices may rise to $100 per barrel, or even higher," he told the newspaper.
Meanwhile, inflation, according to the expert consensus forecast, will slow to 5.2% by the end of 2022, thanks to a tighter monetary policy by the Bank of Russia. The key rate will peak at 9% and will drop to 7.75% by the end of the year.
Vedomosti: COVID-19 cases in US and France break records
The number of COVID-19 cases in the United States on December 28 was more than 265,000, the Johns Hopkins University said, which is a pandemic record-breaker. A historical record for the number of cases was also set on December 28, in France: according to the country’s Ministry of Health, the number of cases reached 208,000. Public New Year's events were canceled, and where possible, employees will be transferred to remote work. Meanwhile, experts told Vedomosti that by introducing relatively soft restrictions, the leaders of Western countries are trying to avoid mounting public discontent.
The French government, in its fight against the Omicron, will try to find a middle ground between the effectiveness of restrictive measures and their moderation, since the French are obviously tired of the past quarantine and even of the current measures, Head of European Political Research Department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Pavel Timofeev told the newspaper. According to him, tough restrictions are not in the interests of President Emmanuel Macron with the spring presidential elections nearing. Having imposed a strict quarantine because of Omicron, he risks massive public discontent.
In Germany, the number of cases has not yet reached the same scale as in the United States and France - about 31,000 new cases on December 28. The restrictive measures that are being introduced or planned to be introduced by the German government will also not be as strict as before, otherwise the effectiveness of the ongoing vaccination campaign will come under fire, Researcher at the Institute for International at MGIMO University Studies Artem Sokolov said.
By introducing relatively soft restrictions, the leadership of Western countries seek to avoid a surge of public discontent, political analyst Gleb Kuznetsov believes. Now, anti-epidemiological measures will be taken with an eye on public opinion, so as not to enrage the already irritated population, the expert told the newspaper.
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