MOSCOW, January 19. /TASS/. Friday’s meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Geneva will be an episode in a dialogue on security guarantees Moscow and Washington are trying to start, which is unable to produce concrete decisions for the time being. No quick concessions to requests from the opposite side should be expected, the director of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, Valery Garbuzov, told TASS on Wednesday.
He is certain that the forthcoming contacts between the two countries’ top diplomats would be devoted to "clearing up positions and discussing the very same set of issues that have been on the agenda all along."
"I do not think that some agreement will be reached. One can expect that a series of Russia-US meetings will begin if both sides are disposed to maintain a dialogue," he believes. "It may be a dialogue without any decisions being made: it would be wrong to think that Russia’s concerns will promptly result in some concessions by the United States and NATO. The sole way out of this situation is to continue the dialogue in the hope that its very continuation is a result."
As plain as day
Garbuzov drew attention to Moscow’s demands addressed to Washington and NATO for presenting their answers to the security guarantee proposals in writing and within the tightest deadlines.
"Firstly, I have no idea, if there will be written replies. That Russia wants to have them in writing does not mean that they will be provided in writing," Garbuzov said. "Secondly, I do not think that there will be answers that will satisfy Russia."
He stressed that the North Atlantic Alliance had already formulated its firm stance in public: Moscow has no right to veto the accession of new members to NATO, including Ukraine and Georgia.
"I do not expect something [at the forthcoming meeting between Lavrov and Blinken] that may surprise me," he said. "The United States had formulated its position long before that. Moreover, this dialogue concerns not just the expectation of US replies. Washington has its own questions to Russia, for instance, those about Ukraine and the alleged concentration of Russian troops on its border."
The analyst said that the Ukrainian factor "very seriously" aggravates bilateral contacts between Moscow and Washington in this sphere.
Breakthrough on INF missiles unlikely
As he dwelt upon the prospects of the Russian-US dialogue on security guarantees, Garbuzov said he saw no signs of a breakthrough on intermediate and shorter-range missiles. Earlier, Washington’s readiness to negotiate this issue with Moscow was mentioned by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and the Pentagon’s spokesman John Kirby.
Garbuzov said the United States’ stance on the INF issue largely relied on the argument that "there is China with the same missiles."
"If the current US administration still has hopes for bringing China to the negotiating table is anyone’s guess, but I reckon that it is more realistic in this respect than the previous Donald Trump administration. The Americans do understand that a threat from China does exist. In their scheme of things, it would be far better to hold trilateral talks and to conclude a trilateral agreement on these missiles among Russia, China and the United States. But this is an unachievable goal."
Garbuzov stressed that China saw no reasons for signing such an agreement, while for the United States it made no sense to get back to the bilateral dialogue with Russia. "The net effect is the INF segment of the military sphere will remain uncontrolled for some time," he concluded.
Geneva meeting
Earlier on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed that preparations were being made for a Lavrov-Blinken meeting in Geneva on January 21. One day earlier a high-ranking Department of State official said that in Washington’s opinion the forthcoming contacts would be geared to continuing diplomatic cooperation on security issues and might promote better understanding between the two sides.
On December 17, 2021 the Russian Foreign Ministry published drafts of a treaty with the United States on security guarantees and also an agreement on measures of ensuring the security of Russia and the NATO member-states. Consultations on these issues were held in Geneva on January 10. On January 12, the Russia-NATO Council met in session in Brussels, and on January 13 there was a session of the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna. The initiatives in question were examined.