ROME, March 16. /TASS/. The escalation in the Middle East has sharply increased the risks for global energy and agricultural systems, which could lead to a deterioration in global food security in the coming months, Maximo Torero, Chief Economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), told TASS.
"In the immediate future, the global food system is unlikely to face widespread physical shortages of staple grains because current global stocks remain relatively adequate and most major producing regions are not directly affected by the conflict. However, the situation poses significant risks to food affordability, input availability, and future agricultural production, particularly if the disruptions continue," he said in his written response to a request from TASS.
"The main risk identified is not an immediate global shortage of food, but rather a gradual deterioration in food security driven by rising prices, reduced access to agricultural inputs, and increased production costs. These effects would likely become visible within one or two agricultural cycles, especially in regions that are highly dependent on imported fertilizers and energy," he said.
As the FAO chief economist noted, one of the main problems is the cessation of fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf region and the disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
"When fuel prices increase sharply, the cost of producing and distributing food rises across the entire supply chain. This can lead to higher consumer food prices even if overall production levels remain relatively stable," his commentary says.
According to the expert, the greatest challenges may arise in fragile economies in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as parts of southern Africa and Asia, where governments have limited fiscal capacity to mitigate price shocks and purchase food.