WASHINGTON, April 22. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its outlook for Russia’s GDP growth this year to 1.5%, according to the latest IMF report on global economic development prospects, presented in Washington.
The forecast for 2025 was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared to the IMF data presented in January. The Fund also improved its estimates for Russian GDP in 2024 from 3.8% to 4.1%. At the same time, experts lowered their forecast for Russian economic growth in 2026 by 0.3 pp, to 0.9%.
"Growth in emerging and developing Europe is projected to slow down considerably, from 3.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and 2026. This reflects a sharp drop in growth in Russia from 4.1% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025 and to 0.9% in 2026 as private consumption and investment decelerate amid reduced tightness in the labor market and slower wage growth. Compared with that projected in the January 2025 WEO Update, growth in Russia has been revised slightly upward for 2025 thanks to stronger-than-expected outturns in the data for 2024," the report notes.
According to the fund's estimates, inflation in Russia will be 8.4% in 2024, 9.3% in 2025, and 5.5% in 2026. According to the IMF, the unemployment rate in Russia was 2.5% last year, 2.8% this year, and 3.5% in the future. The projected growth rates of the Russian economy, according to experts, exceed similar indicators in 2025 for most developed economies that have imposed sanctions against Moscow. In particular, the GDP growth of the Eurozone countries will be only 0.8% (Germany - 0%, Italy - 0.4%, France - 0.6%), Japan - 0.6%, the UK - 1.1%, Canada - 1.4%. The growth rate of the US economy will be 1.8%. Ukraine's GDP growth, according to experts, was 3.5% last year, will fall to 2% this year, and will rise to 4.5% next year. As noted in the report, "a ceasefire in Ukraine has the potential to raise growth in the region, through a rebound in consumer confidence and reduction in energy prices, especially in Europe.".