MOSCOW, August 5. /TASS/. The Russian securities market will continue to be under pressure of negative factors, including fears of recession in the US economy, experts questioned by TASS say.
The Russian stock market followed global sales at the start of the trading day in an attempt to reach the minimal figure in this year for the MOEX Russia Index. International investors fear recession in the US and are alarmed by problems in the Chinese economy amid a "trade war" with China, Alfa-Bank says. "Global markets are waiting for the service PMI in the US today. Futures for the federal funds rate assume with the 60% probability that the Fed may urgently slash interest rates as early as this week, while Nasdaq futures plummeted by 6.9%. Any negative macro publications will probably intensify pressure on markets," Alfa-Bank adds.
"The impact of the situation in the US economy on the Russian market declined noticeably after 2022, following restrictions on the side of developing nations; nevertheless, it remains to a certain extent because Russia remains an important player at the international stage, just like a number of its companies. Therefore, negative data in the US may have certain pressure on the Russian market, particularly in absence of domestic positive data and growth points," Anna Kokoreva from BCS Investment World says.
No significant grounds for optimism in Russian stocks are observed so far, experts say. "The forthcoming week will be noted on the whole by the continuation of the quarterly reporting season particularly in Russia, while country’s consumer inflation data for July will be released on Friday, which will influence the position of the Bank of Russia on interest rates," Elena Kozhukhova from Veles Capital noted.
The MOEX Russia Index is not expected to be above 2,900 points this fall, Finam company says. "Considering weak dynamics of oil and other commodity prices, and volatility in the US (the S&P 500 may drop by about 4% more to 5,155 points), the MOEX Russia Index may plunge stronger. Accordingly, it will recover from a lower point," Natalya Malykh from Finam added.