MOSCOW, November 6. /TASS/. Donald Trump, who is winning the US presidential election, will try to quickly settle the Ukrainian conflict, but he will offer a deal unacceptable to Russia, so in all likelihood the conflict will continue, Dmitry Suslov, the deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and an expert of the Valdai Club, has told TASS.
In his comments on the results of the US presidential election, the analyst noted that Trump "will indeed try to quickly resolve the conflict in Ukraine," which he promised during the election campaign, but he will not succeed.
"Judging by all statements and publications, Trump is likely to suggest freezing the conflict, in which the current line of engagement will actually turn into a new de facto border without being recognized as an international legal boundary. Russia would retain control of the liberated territories. Perhaps, the Trump administration may even propose a neutral status for Ukraine and its pledge not to join NATO, but at the same time it will insist that Ukraine be militarily strengthened, that its militarization increase, that there be no restrictions on NATO’s arms deliveries to Ukraine, no restrictions on the training of Ukrainian armed forces by Western instructors, and no restrictions on the intensity of cooperation between NATO countries and Ukraine. In other words, they will insist that the policy of Ukraine’s militarization of Ukraine should be continued," Suslov believes.
Such a swap would be unacceptable to Russia and detrimental to its security interests, he continued.
"Russia, of course, will categorically disagree with such conditions. For Russia, and this has been repeatedly said by all Russian officials and foreign policy makers, it is extremely important to achieve demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine and a situation in which Ukraine would not pose a threat to us," the expert explained. "A Ukraine that maintains close security cooperation with NATO, even without being a full member, and a still militarized Ukraine remains a threat to us. Of course, Russia will reject this scenario".
Under these conditions, the analyst predicts, the Ukrainian conflict will retain the status quo: Trump will hardly go for an escalation, in which all restrictions on arms deliveries to Kiev will be lifted, but he will not completely abandon support for Ukraine, either.
"I don't see any preconditions for significant changes. Moreover, I see no preconditions for a quick or relatively quick end to the military conflict in Ukraine," Suslov concluded.
US election
Officially, the results have not yet been summarized, but according to Fox News forecasts, Trump has already won 277 electoral votes out of the required 270. He himself has already declared himself the 47th president of the United States. House Speaker Mike Johnson called him resident-elect. Trump has been receiving congratulations from foreign leaders.