MOSCOW, December 28. /TASS/. Growth of Russia’s GDP by the end of 2022 will slow down to about 2.5% and will not reach the official forecast, while annual inflation will still exceed the target and the 5% mark, according to a consensus forecast compiled by TASS based on a survey of analysts.
The main risk factors for the Russian economy remain the same: anti-coronavirus restrictions, monetary policy tightening, commodity prices, as well as low rates of vaccination. In 2021 all figures except for inflation improved after the weak year of 2020, but in 2022 Russian economy, it will no longer grow from a "low base".
GDP
According to experts interviewed by TASS, Russia's GDP growth in 2022 will be approximately 2.5%. The official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2022 is 3%.
"GDP growth will be negatively influenced mainly by external shocks, as well as whether the business will be able to adapt to the tightening of monetary policy both in Russia and around the world. So far it is working out, but who knows," Managing Director of the National Rating Agency Sergey Grishunin said.
Head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam Olga Belenkaya also believes that the growth of the Russian economy will be largely determined by the international situation and will follow the global trend. "In 2022, in our baseline scenario, the world economy will continue to grow at a relatively high pace (but lower than in 2021), OPEC+ oil output will continue to recover, which will support the export-oriented sectors of the Russian economy," she said.
Inflation
The majority of experts, unlike the government and the Bank of Russia, believe that inflation in 2022 will decline from the current 8%, but still will not meet the target. According to consensus, by the end of next year, the figure will reach 5.1%.
"According to the Bank of Russia, the inflation rate should drop to 4-4.5% by the end of 2022, but this scenario still seems unlikely," Head of the Center for Strategic Research Vladislav Onishchenko said. In his opinion, reaching the target seems more realistic in 2023 at the earliest, provided there are no new shocks in the global economy.
The expected stabilization of commodity prices, restoration of supply chains, tightening of monetary and budgetary policies in Russia and the world, as well as the opening of borders for foreign tourism, may support slowing inflation in 2022, according to Chief Analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev.
Ruble
The year 2022 will be as calm for the ruble exchange rate as 2021 - according to experts, the Russian currency will remain stable.
"Compared to previous years, the Russian currency in 2021 showed relatively low volatility, taking advantage of the prevailing growth in commodity prices. The average ruble exchange rate for this year is expected to be around 74 rubles per dollar. Next year, the average exchange rate will most likely shift to the range of 75-78 rubles per dollar," Onishchenko said. In his opinion, the growth potential of many commodities is virtually exhausted.
Experts from HSE University agree - the dynamics of the ruble in recent months have been strongly influenced by geopolitical factors associated with a new round of tensions with Ukraine and concerns about the introduction of Western financial sanctions. As geopolitical tensions subside, economic factors can be expected to dominate, they suggest.
Real income
Almost all interviewed experts found it difficult to predict the real disposable income of the population for 2022. According to Finam, growth in real incomes of the population will reach 1.5-2%, while Alfa Capital expects to see 4-5% growth.