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Russian economy to start recovery in Q2 2021, says survey

Economists expect inflation in 2021 at the same level as previously

MOSCOW, April 9. /TASS/. The Russian economy will start recovery in the second quarter of 2021, according to a survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics (HSE) Development Center among economists.

"Compared with the previous survey conducted in the middle of February, the 2020 GDP consensus forecast decreased by almost 4 percentage points: instead of moderate growth (1.8%), a more or less moderate decline is now expected (-2%)," according to a note dubbed ‘Commentary on state and business’.

As far as quarterly projections are concerned, Russia’s GDP growth of 1.8% in Q1 in annual terms will be followed by a contraction of 8.1% in Q2, 2.6% in Q3, and 1,1% in Q4. GDP contraction in Q1 2021 is expected to equal 0.4%.

The recovery of the Russian economy is not expected earlier than in the second quarter of 2021 with 7.2% growth in annual terms, after which growth will slow down to 2.3% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4.

"The consensus forecast for 2021 should be acknowledged as moderately optimistic: GDP growth of 2.3%, which is even higher than the previous survey said (compared with a lower base though)," the HSE study said. The previous outlook for 2021 envisioned Russia’s economic growth of 2%.

The consensus forecast on Urals crude, Russia's export blend, for 2020 decreased by $25 per barrel as the previous outlook envisioned the price of the Urals crude oil at $59.6 per barrel, while the most recent one - at $34.3 per barrel.

"It is obvious though that experts do not tend to be deeply pessimistic: the oil prices projections for the year in general are almost twice as high as the current level," the note said.

Meanwhile, a sharp decrease in oil prices has notably pushed devaluation expectations up, though the consensus forecast also suggests here that the worst is behind, and that the ruble will slightly strengthen by the yearend.

Inflation is expected to remain under control, though exceeding the 4% target for a little while though. The majority of experts do not expect the Central Bank to manipulate its key rate. Inflation in 2020 is now projected at the level of 5.3% (previously - 3.6%).

Economists expect inflation in 2021 at the same level as previously (3.8%), while the oil price - at $47 per barrel (previously - $60.7 per barrel).

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