MOSCOW, March 18. /TASS/. Discussing three potential scenarios for the evolution of the negotiation process regarding Ukraine in 2025, Andrey Sushentsov, the dean of the Department of International Relations at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), stated that a diplomatic settlement of the conflict is the most feasible outcome. In his view, the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States amid the ongoing Ukrainian crisis is less likely, while a breakdown of negotiations and a return to confrontation is the least probable scenario. He shared these insights in a conversation with TASS.
"There are three scenarios concerning the negotiations for a resolution in Ukraine. The first, which is highly probable, involves progress toward a comprehensive political settlement. There is a chance this could materialize by 2025, as both Russian and American leaders have expressed a willingness to pursue it. Ukraine, however, has sought to avoid negotiations, relying on European support to continue its fight. The Europeans have made it clear that they lack the resources to sustain this effort, and without assistance from Washington, Kiev will struggle to maintain its resistance. Consequently, Ukraine has been compelled to agree to American demands to initiate negotiations," explained Sushentsov, a member of the Research and Expert Council under the Russian Security Council.
"The second scenario involves the resumption of relations between Russia and the United States, while the conflict in Ukraine persists, with European nations acting as the primary sponsors of Kiev. Europe is preparing for rearmament and could use the situation in Ukraine to buy time for extensive military reforms. However, this scenario is less likely than the first, as the EU remains a fragile backstop for significant military initiatives and is still deeply fragmented. The path toward EU militarization may inevitably lead to a division within the bloc, with some countries adopting alarmist positions while others advocate for neutrality. This fragmentation could ultimately result in the disintegration of the EU," the political scientist noted.
"The third and least likely scenario is a collapse of negotiations and a reversion to the policy seen during Joe Biden's presidency, when the US supported Ukraine and the West in pursuit of Russia’s strategic defeat. This outcome is improbable, because it does not align with the priorities of the Trump administration, which views involvement in foreign conflicts as running counter to American interests. Trump is focused on economic development, territorial stability, and the strengthening of the dollar's role in international trade. The ongoing Ukrainian crisis is not among his administration's priorities," the analyst clarified.
Trump aware Ukraine’s capitulation is a matter of time
Sushentsov remarked, "The Ukrainian crisis has become an unending source of humiliation and negative news for the United States: American weaponry has failed to secure success for Ukraine, and the Kiev regime is continually losing opportunities to protect its interests."
He added, "Trump and his administration assert that the US has leverage over Russia, such as sanctions, but both Washington and Moscow recognize that the West has depleted its options in this regard. Russia genuinely desires a political resolution to the situation in Ukraine, but only with its interests in mind. Since late 2021, the Russian leadership has reiterated these interests. If they are met, Russia will be prepared to achieve its objectives through political means. Otherwise, Moscow will continue to pursue its goals through military means."
"Trump articulated a reasonable perspective that resonates with Russia: the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in 2022 stemmed from Biden’s misunderstanding of American interests and his attempt to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine. This approach is unfeasible and has yielded no benefits for Washington. Trump aims to extricate the United States from this crisis, understanding that Ukraine's capitulation is merely a matter of time. It is evident to all that the West lacks the resources to defeat Russia," Sushentsov concluded.
Russian-US communication
A telephone conversation between Putin and Trump is scheduled for Tuesday. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, confirmed the preparations for this call the day before. The Kremlin indicated that they would prepare key points on all relevant issues, primarily focusing on the Ukrainian settlement. Trump, for his part, stated that he intended to address territorial and security issues within the context of the Ukrainian conflict.
The previous telephone conversation between Putin and Trump took place on February 12, marking the first official communication between the leaders of Russia and the United States in three years. During this discussion, they addressed the Ukrainian conflict and bilateral relations, agreeing to maintain ongoing communication, including potential face-to-face meetings.
Subsequently, the US conducted talks with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia. The discussions focused on aligning Moscow's and Washington's positions regarding Ukraine. The outcome of the US-Ukraine meeting included Kiev's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire and the US decision to reinstate military assistance to Ukraine, with Washington now expecting Russia to agree to the ceasefire.
On March 13, Putin explained that Russia was "in favor, but there are nuances." He highlighted the challenges of enforcing a ceasefire along a 2,000-kilometer frontline, the presence of Ukrainian military personnel stationed near Kursk, and concerns that Kiev might use the ceasefire to rearm. Nonetheless, he emphasized that Moscow supports the idea of resolving the conflict through peaceful means.
On the same day, Putin met with US special envoy Steven Witkoff in the Kremlin, conveying "additional signals" to Trump. According to Witkoff, their conversation lasted 3-4 hours and was productive.
In the summer of 2024, during a meeting with the leadership of the Foreign Ministry, Putin reviewed the conditions for a settlement in Ukraine, which included the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from Donbass and Novorossiya, as well as Kiev's commitment not to join NATO. Additionally, Russia insists on ensuring the rights, freedoms, and interests of Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine, lifting all Western sanctions against Russia, and establishing Ukraine's non-aligned and nuclear-free status.