Tensions around Ukraine have escalated throughout the past week. The evacuation of civilians from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) to Russia began on February 18. This is accompanied by reports from the DPR and LPR of shelling and sabotage by the Ukrainian armed forces. On February 20, French President Emmanuel Macron tried to play a mediating role by calling first Russian President Vladimir Putin and then Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. The parties agreed to step up diplomatic efforts by the Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany) and hold a meeting in Paris at the level of the Foreign Ministers of Russia and France, Vedomosti writes. At the same time, experts told Vedomosti that the West may not be ready for real concessions.
The current international deadlock will last for a long time, Director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies at Moscow State University Yuri Rogulev told the newspaper. Both Moscow’s Western adversaries and Russia itself can maintain tension, but no one will cross the threshold of no return, he added.
So far, a slow escalation of the crisis that would last for a long time appears to be the conditionally favorable scenario, added Georgy Chizhov, who heads the European Dialogue expert group. Although Kiev fears that the situation would worsen, the country's current leadership will not agree to sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of the DPR and LPR, which Moscow wants, he believes.
Meanwhile, Europe does not benefit from the deterioration of the crisis amid its internal concerns, such as the impending elections in France and the imbalance within Germany's ruling coalition, Rogulev notes. But, so far, no one is giving in, Director of Programs at the Russian International Affairs Council Ivan Timofeev told Vedomosti. He emphasized that the West is not prepared to make genuine compromises, like negotiating an end to NATO’s expansion.
Izvestia: What Kiev expects from the situation in Donbass
Kiev dispatched its most combat-ready airmobile and tank regiments to Donbass. According to Izvestia's sources in the unrecognized republics, three military formations have already been put together against the people's militia brigades of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s republics (DPR and LPR). While the people of the region are being evacuated to Russia, Donbass is under fire. According to the authorities of the republics, reconnaissance, and sabotage units have appeared in the villages, with at least two battles taking place over the weekend. Under these conditions, military experts are unable to forecast future developments.
The Russian Foreign Ministry assessed the number of Ukrainian forces in Donbass at 125,000 at the end of last year, which is half of the total personnel of Ukraine's Armed Forces. Since then, the leaders of the unrecognized republics have announced its expansion on numerous occasions. Denis Pushilin, the DPR's leader, reported 150,000 Ukrainian troops near the demarcation line in mid-February.
"It is possible that Ukraine's Armed Forces are preparing for a fast operation — to cut the republics off from each other and from the Russian border with heavy blows," military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia. "They can, however, rely on this sort of operation only if Russia does not support the DPR and LPR. Right now, Ukraine's Armed Forces are attempting to orchestrate a large enough mess without it spiraling into a large-scale war so that Russia has no incentive to commit forces to back Donetsk and Lugansk. Kiev is goading the breakaway republics into launching serious actions. It is critical for them to get a retaliatory strike since this will allow Ukraine to claim that they have been subjected to aggression and are not at fault for anything," he added.
According to the expert, Kiev is trying to solve three issues at once with its actions. First, the Ukrainian authorities could need a conflict that would "nullify" the Minsk agreements. Second, they need to understand what to do next with Donbass. And, finally, to satisfy what the US and NATO are asking for: the launch of substantial sanctions that have already been prepared, Shurygin suggested.
Izvestia: Russian sports minister castigates politicization of Olympics
Politicization of the Olympic Games and sports, in general, is unacceptable, Russia’s Minister of Sports Oleg Matytsin said in an interview with Izvestia. The top official also hoped that the next Olympics and World Championships in 2023 will be held with the participation of the Russian team under its national flag and the anthem.
"Our national team is very competitive, as far as the number of medals is concerned, we’ve exceeded the previous Winter Olympics. We finished the Games in second place overall, and this also shows the right trajectory in most sports," he said, commenting on Russia’s overall performance at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.
"Sport should be an ambassador for peace and there should be no politicization at the Olympics," Minister Matytsin said, adding "Unfortunately, we are seeing how they try to politicize sports. This also applies to attempts by individual countries to boycott the Games in Beijing. This is, as we have continually stated, unacceptable. And, of course, we support our colleagues from the People's Republic of China. It is more crucial than ever to demonstrate the superiority of Olympic values."
Talking about the scandal around Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva, Matytsin noted, "The Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) and the Ministry of Sports of Russia will do everything necessary to collect the necessary objective information and protect the athlete, as well as other athletes and coaches."
He hoped that Russia will be able to compete in sporting competitions under its own flag and national anthem in the near future. "We're doing everything we can to make this happen. This is a task that we have to solve together by the end of this year, by December 17. We will believe that the next Olympic Games and World Championships in 2023 will be held with our team participating under our flag and anthem," the Minister said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU energy market mulls abandoning Russian gas
Russia has lowered its gas deliveries to Europe by more than 35% since the beginning of the year. More specifically, Europeans have curtailed their imports of Russian gas, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. This refusal of Russian supplies was made feasible by a rise in liquefied natural gas imports (LNG). In the near future, Europe will open new terminals, reducing the need for Russian gas even further. Under such conditions, the volume of Russian gas exports to the EU is likely to be cut in half.
Statements regarding the need to lessen the EU's reliance on Russian gas are becoming more common throughout Europe. For example, during his speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki proposed shutting down the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline.
In the first half of February, Europe increased imports of liquefied natural gas by 80%, Ekaterina Kolbikova, a senior consultant at Vygon Consulting told the newspaper. "In the first half of February 2022, Europe imported 8 bln cubic meters of gas in the form of LNG, which is 80% more than in the same period last year," she said.
The expert believes that by the end of the year, LNG imports to Europe may see a 12.5% increase (or 13 bln cubic meters of gas) to 120 bln cubic meters. For comparison, last year, Gazprom supplied over 185 bln cubic meters of gas to non-CIS countries.
At the same time, experts forecast that in the event of a further increase in gas prices or the outbreak of an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which would lead to supply disruptions, generation from coal-fired power plants could rise by another 11% in 2022 to 641 TWh.
The international pricing agency Argus believes that in the coming years, the demand for coal in the countries of North-Western Europe will remain high.
Vedomosti: Bank of Russia digs in its heels on banning cryptocurrencies
The Bank of Russia has no plans to soften its stance on cryptocurrency regulation. Russia’s central bank has put together bills that prohibit the issuance, circulation, and possession of cryptocurrencies in Russia, with violations leading to fines, Vedomosti writes. According to the Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, the compromise option proposed by the Ministry of Finance - the concept of legalizing cryptocurrencies - does not stop their risks.
The Bank of Russia does not have the right of legislative initiative, but the government has, and it is not planning a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrencies, Guskov & Associates tax manager Marina Kharitidi told the newspaper. As a result, she believes that bills containing such notions are unlikely to be approved by the State Duma.
The objective reality in the world of cryptocurrencies is that private cryptocurrencies will exist regardless of the Bank of Russia's intention. Therefore, a regulation that benefits Russia is required, Vice President of RAKIB for Market Regulation Valery Petrov told Vedomosti. If the legislation is consistent with international practice, he believes that these solutions will not have the flaws that the Bank of Russia mentions.
A number of experts interviewed agree with the regulator that the development of the cryptocurrency market according to the Ministry of Finance’s concept poses a threat to the well-being of Russians and financial stability.
The significant development of cryptocurrencies in Russia can result in significant negative changes, including a partial loss of control over the country's monetary system and the destabilization of the banking sector, and the regulation proposed by the Ministry of Finance does not address this potential problem, Kharitidi noted.
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