MOSCOW, November 17. /TASS/. The EU's trade importance for Russia continues to shrink as a result of sanctions and reorientation of the supply chain, Director of the Center for Economics and Infrastructure Industries of the Center for Strategic Research Beglyar Novruzov told TASS.
"As a result of sanctions, the trade significance of the EU, some North American and Asian countries continues to decline. This primarily affects the reorientation of a part of the transportation complex in the western and northwestern directions. By the way, in 2021-2022 Russian exports to the West will make up about 25-30% of the total export volume. Now a part of these exports will be delivered to the South, primarily through the ports of the Azov-Black Basin, as well as through land and sea routes of the North-South corridor. However, the cargo is already moving in the eastern direction via the routes of the Eastern range," he explained.
He also noted that the vector of the flow of Russian supplies to old partners in South America and Asia, as well as new markets in Africa, Latin America, and parts of the Middle East, must be considered.
"As a result, by 2025 we expect to see a recovery in export volumes, primarily in the western direction," the expert said, adding that work on developing the southern direction is almost complete, with plans to build transport infrastructure and increase the capacity of railways and sea ports. Road construction in the south is also underway.
According to Novruzov, as a result of these efforts, Russian exports are expected to increase by 20% by 2025 and by 30% by 2030. He believes that this will only be the case for Black Sea routes, where the focus will shift from EU countries, which previously accounted for 40% of exports in this direction, to the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia.
The expert also drew attention to the East, where, in addition to traditional routes, land routes through Kazakhstan, Mongolia and China are expanding with the aim of developing trade with the interior regions of Central and Southeast Asia.
"In addition, there is a growing demand for transportation, especially from coal mining companies interested in developing transportation infrastructure. This will allow for the transportation of huge amounts of cargo such as grain, fertilizer, timber and metals. Finally, if the prediction of the 'new environmental policy' comes true, the transportation of coal will be reduced, as well as its expected consumption. At the moment, it is necessary to pay attention to container cargo, the volume of which is growing, especially from Asia-Pacific countries," the expert said.
Novruzov also pointed out that the government actively supports the development of interregional transportation, especially in the export direction - both rail and road.