MOSCOW, August 9. /TASS/. Western 'missile donors' inciting Kiev to carry out long-range strikes on Russia; US pursuing its interests in Niger; and British companies growing frustrated with London’s staunch stand on anti-Russian sanctions. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: 'Missile donors' inciting Kiev to carry out long-range strikes on Russia
NATO countries are increasing their military assistance to Ukraine. Judging by leaks in the media, they are still holding out hope for a new phase in Kiev’s thus-far-lackluster counteroffensive, which will be backed by the delivery of high-precision long-range missiles, tanks and other weapons, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Washington will soon provide Kiev with more weaponry worth $200 mln. The latest military aid package will include de-mining equipment, ammunition for Patriot missile systems and Javelin anti-tank systems, as well as HIMARS rockets and other ammunition and equipment. In addition, according to the Pentagon, the White House has approved sending the first batch of Abrams tanks to the Ukrainian armed forces. Politico reported that six to eight out of the promised 31 tanks may be delivered to Ukraine already in September.
"They (the US tanks - TASS) will hardly help the Ukrainian army to turn the tide in terms of its offensive operation," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert. "Eight tanks is peanuts, just two platoons that can advance along a frontline 300-400 meters long, while the line of contact in the special military operation zone is far longer by several magnitudes. Besides, there are several mine belts with a width of up to 40 kilometers or more along the Russian positions," he added. The supply of armored equipment cannot lead to any radical change in the situation because Kiev lacks other important weapons, the general noted.
Meanwhile, Germany may join the group of Ukraine’s "missile donors." Der Spiegel reports that the German government has reached a consensus on providing Ukraine with Taurus long-range cruise missiles, capable of striking targets at ranges of up to 500 kilometers.
Germany is spending a lot of money on military support for Ukraine, largely because Berlin has to follow in the wake of its NATO allies’ foreign policy, historian and political scientist Pyotr Fedosov told Izvestia. Former German parliament member Waldemar Herdt believes that it is Washington that will have the final say on long-range missile supplies to Ukraine. The question lies in whether the US chooses to escalate the conflict or to initially say "no." Herdt views the latter scenario as unlikely because the main goals of the conflict are to destroy the European Union’s economy, create serious problems for Russia, and stop China’s development.
Izvestia: What interests is the US pursuing in Niger?
France is behind the United States’ move to join efforts aimed at resolving the situation in Niger as Paris is unwilling to forfeit its influence in the West African country, a source in the office of Russia’s honorary consul in the Nigerien capital of Niamey told Izvestia. Washington is clearly seeking to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum, toppled by the military in late July, in power. For Western nations, it is crucial to have loyal leaders at the helm of those countries that are rich in natural resources, experts noted.
US Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has visited Niger. She met with representatives of the rebels but was unable to hold meetings with either ousted President Mohamed Bazoum or the coup’s leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani.
"Such a high-level visit sends a clear signal that the US is interested in preserving the previous political regime. It’s a signal not only to Niger but also to its neighbors, who are undecided on how to react to the military coup," Grigory Yarygin, associate professor in the Department of American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, pointed out.
"If we look at the US policy and approach, we will see that the old idea of maintaining control over developing countries for the sake of guaranteeing access to vital commodities is now back in vogue," said Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. According to him, the tactics that the US applied after the European colonial system in Africa collapsed in the 1960s, which involved developing uneven market-based relations with economically underdeveloped countries by selling goods at prices favorable for Western countries, has failed to produce the desired results. Additionally, developments of recent years, including sanctions on Moscow, the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, have significantly changed the logistics of transporting goods, thus leading to supply chain disruptions. The United States is increasingly seeking direct control over resources and political oversight of countries in general, which in large part explains the roots of Washington’s neocolonial approach to foreign policy, Vasilyev noted.
Yarygin emphasized that Washington also had other concerns: "If European players leave [Africa], someone else will show up [to fill the vacuum]. Clearly, the US is wary that the void will be filled by either Chinese or Russian influence."
Izvestia: British companies quietly frustrated with UK’s relentless sanctions on Russia
A number of British companies are showing dissatisfaction with London’s policy of relentless sanctions against Russia, a member of the UK House of Lords told Izvestia. However, experts do not see any change in the United Kingdom’s course on the horizon.
The early 2020s have seen the world’s developed economies run up against several factors that have had a major negative impact. In 2020, the world had to deal with the coronavirus pandemic and its global consequences, and then in 2022 Russia’s special military operation began, entailing unprecedented sanctions against Moscow. However, contrary to the West’s expectations, not only the intended target - Russia - has suffered, but those countries that imposed sanctions have also ended up taking a hit from the economic turbulence triggered by these very same restrictions. According to the Financial Times, since the launch of Russia’s special military operation, major European companies have posted losses of at least 100 bln euros.
Energy companies have incurred the greatest damage. A number of companies are not happy about the situation but have made few public statements and are simply on the lookout for ways to circumvent sanctions, UK House of Lords member Richard Balfe told Izvestia. According to him, one of the options is to trade through subsidiaries based in those countries that have a more relaxed outlook toward Russia.
The United Kingdom is acting as one of the leaders of the policy of sanctions targeting Moscow, said Kira Godovanyuk, lead researcher with the Center for British Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe. "This is why any sign of the government somehow taking a softer tone toward Russia would mean they are admitting to having been wrong," she explained. "Given that next year will be crucial as the UK is going to hold [parliamentary] elections, no sharp and radical turns should be expected in London’s Russia policy. The United Kingdom is now most actively lobbying for tighter measures against Moscow and no changes seem possible at this point," the expert stressed. "They have been saying from all platforms that their main goal is to make sure Russia loses in Ukraine, and sanctions pressure is one of the ways to achieve that," Godovanyuk noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: West seeking to drag Kazakhstan into its orbit
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Bujar Osmani will make an official visit to Kazakhstan on August 11. His talks with the country’s leadership will involve an exchange of views on pressing cooperation issues. Experts expect Osmani to discuss ways to deepen Kazakhstan’s westward integration, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
Alexander Kobrinsky, director of the Agency for Ethno-National Strategies, believes that the OSCE is either dying or in a deep coma, which is why "it has fully come under the influence of anti-Russian forces." The OSCE chairperson-in-office will travel to Kazakhstan to discuss the country’s deeper integration into the West’s agenda, which will first and foremost require a move to abandon close cooperation with Russia, the expert said. Kobrinsky also pointed out that Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has had little success in implementing his domestic agenda and thus is seeking to focus on foreign policy.
According to Kobrinsky, the OSCE chief is interested in Kazakhstan’s domestic agenda only in terms of dragging the country into the West’s orbit. "What they will talk about is clear; there are only some nuances. The nuances concern the European companies that will be able to integrate deeper into Kazakhstan’s economy, given the highly difficult situation in Europe. However, it won’t benefit Kazakhstan. Those who doubt this should ask African countries. They have been in the West’s orbit for centuries already. Niger is an illustrative example," Kobrinsky said.
The West’s goal, in his words, is to destabilize the situation in Central Asia as much as possible. Kyrgyzstan is a good example of these attempts. "After a series of visits by European officials, Bishkek suddenly started to distance itself from Moscow. For now, issues of economic cooperation and economic benefits are holding Kyrgyzstan back, but in terms of mentality, Kyrgyz society is moving away from Russia. The West’s primary goal is to drive the society of [the much larger] Kazakhstan away from Russia. This is what cognitive warfare is all about," Kobrinsky stressed.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Experts highlight major increase in Russia-China trade
Russia-China trade grew by 36.5% to $134 bln in the period January-July 2023, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes, citing statistics from China’s General Administration of Customs.
"The impressive increase in trade between Russia and China is a continuation of the trend involving the redirection of Russia’s external trade flows to the East and the ‘Global South,’ which first emerged back in 2014 but began to accelerate last year," Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, said. "Last year, Russia-China trade rose by 29.3%, reaching a record level of $190 bln. This year, it will likely pass the $200 bln mark," the expert emphasized.
The volumes of oil and gas that China imports from Russia are growing, Belenkaya noted. China increased oil and gas imports by 12.4% and 7.5%, respectively, in January-July 2023. According to the analyst, as for exports, China mostly provides Russia with consumer goods, replacing US, EU, Japanese and South Korean brands that have left the country. For instance, passenger car exports from China stood at $4.6 bln in the first half of 2023, marking a 6.4-fold rise from the same period in 2022.
"Commodity producers are starting to learn how to work with China. Until recently, it was just big businesses, namely from the oil and gas sector, but now, numerous small and medium-sized enterprises are bringing their goods to the Chinese market," said Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies. "Trade growth will reach about 30% by the end of the year. That said, we will far exceed the $200 bln goal set for 2024. We are ahead of schedule here and if there are no serious changes, we will reach at least the $230 bln level in terms of trade," Maslov concluded.
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