MOSCOW, August 8. /TASS/. Niger stands ready to repel any military intervention; Ukraine mulling when and if to hold its next presidential election; and competition among Central Asian countries heats up. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Niger poised to repel ECOWAS intervention
Niger is fully prepared for a military standoff with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) if the latter stages an intervention, Addo Iro, aide to Russia’s honorary consul in the West African nation, told Izvestia. According to him, a majority of Nigerien citizens support the military that recently ousted the president. Experts think that, even with the support of France, regional bloc ECOWAS is unlikely to launch a military offensive against Niger. However, they do see potential US involvement as a distinct possibility that could alter the situation.
According to Nikolay Shcherbakov, lead researcher at the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University and professor at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), currently the possibility of ECOWAS’ intervention in Niger remains, high but it would be a zero-sum game for all participants. "The bloc will have to take measures in order not to lose face, but any potential military action would mean an armed conflict that nobody really needs. It would create a major disbalance in an already highly unstable region that is suffering from the actions of Jihadist groups," he told Vedomosti.
Yevgeny Korendyasov, lead researcher at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, thinks that France will seek a solution only within the ECOWAS framework. "First of all, the time has passed for this type of intervention; second, ECOWAS and other such integrative unions are guided by a strict provision that all conflicts should be resolved peacefully," the expert told Izvestia.
French public law professor Karine Bechet-Golovko, who is a visiting professor at Moscow State University, expressed confidence that Paris is losing its position in Africa because it lacks a clear-cut strategy in the region. France is following in line with the EU’s overall foreign policy, while Brussels announced on August 1 that it was ready to support a military operation against Niger given a relevant request by ECOWAS. She noted that France does not have an independent policy with respect to Africa, and therefore it has been pulling out of everywhere - Mali, Burkina Faso, and now Niger. The expert told Izvestia that this is a sad sign because a country that lacks sovereignty cannot be an independent player in foreign policy.
However, according to Pavel Timofeyev, head of the European Political Research Department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, there is still no final decision with regard to Niger. According to him, the French may resort to attempting a military intervention if it is backed by the US. "The Americans have no problems with getting troops there. Then, it would be an intervention by a coalition, not by a single country," he pointed out. However, the expert stressed that France is more likely to try to avoid any military interference because Paris is concerned over the reputational damage that it would incur should it fail. Thus far, it is using economic restrictions, such as suspending all financial aid to neighboring Burkina Faso, the expert told Izvestia.
Kommersant: Ukraine pondering appropriate timeframe for transfer of power domestically
The armed conflict may have sharply overshadowed domestic politics in Ukrainian public life, but has not edged it out entirely. The country is debating whether it is possible to hold an election under martial law and is seemingly preparing for pre-election clashes that would begin if and when all is quiet on the battlefield. Experts see a distinct possibility that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his team may find the task of holding on to power far more difficult than attaining it in the first place was in 2019.
Vladimir Fesenko, who heads Ukraine’s Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, does not rule out that the presidential election may take place next year as scheduled, combined with the parliamentary vote and, possibly, local elections as well. "It is almost certain that they won’t hold the parliamentary elections this year. Yet, the discussion now underway concerns to a greater extent the presidential election," he told the newspaper.
According to him, "it is to the advantage of Vladimir Zelensky’s team to hold the presidential election first and then the parliamentary elections simultaneously or immediately thereafter." "The Zelensky team’s interest in the election concerns the fact that the president’s [favorability] rating is currently very high and he has no competition. If the election were held right now, he would win in the first round with a substantial edge," Fesenko said.
Vadim Karasyov, director of the Kiev-based Institute of Global Strategies, said that the "issue is when to go to the polls. There is an opinion that the further it goes, the more difficult it will be for Zelensky to do so, given the situation at the frontline, the economy, and general war fatigue," the expert told the newspaper.
Konstantin Skorkin, an expert on Ukraine, thinks it is unlikely that the election would be held while military activity is still ongoing. "An election amid martial law is impossible," he told Kommersant. "Plus, there is the issue of several million refugees; it is unclear how to organize the voting process for them," he said. Skorkin pointed out that "everybody is surreptitiously conducting low-level preparations for the election, but nobody knows when it might happen."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Competition heating up among Central Asian countries
Dushanbe is getting ready to host the fifth session of consultations between Central Asian heads of state on September 14-15. As is traditional in this format, the presidents of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan will discuss regional integration issues and sum up the year’s results. However, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have yet to sign the agreement on Friendship, Neighborliness and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century, which was adopted earlier.
The region is becoming increasingly more important in the changing geopolitical environment with the Central Asian countries actively staking out advantageous positions. This year to date, five other summits with the participation of Central Asian countries have taken place: a US-Central Asia ministerial meeting in Astana, a China-Central Asia meeting in Xian, an EU-Central Asia meeting at the prime ministerial level in Almaty, a Gulf-Central Asia meeting in Jeddah, and a summit of three Central Asian countries in Ashgabat. "External interest in the region under the new international conditions is obviously growing and this both offers up new opportunities and gives rise to serious risks," Alexander Knyazev, a PhD in history and lead researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
According to the expert, the current interests of external players are quite multidirectional and reflect the general crisis in international relations. The US and EU have their own interests in the region as opposed to Russia and China. Additionally, there are also players on a lesser scale. And it is a difficult balancing act to determine one’s own interest in this contradictory situation without eliciting threats, a task which the countries of the region have thus far been managing to handle, albeit with the need to constantly walk a tightrope amid significant pressure from varying international forces.
Thus, Central Asia is encountering a number of complications that require serious efforts and coordination among countries across the region in order to ensure more sustainable cooperation and integration for the benefit of regional development and stability.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russian GDP seen growing at 1% annually over coming eight years
Over the past year, Russia’s GDP has grown by 7% in one leap in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), thus allowing the country to bolster its fifth-place position among leading global economies, edging out Germany, according to a World Bank ranking. Russia’s economy is expected to continue to grow by nearly 8%, but over the period up until 2030, which would bring Russia back to sixth place, according to a forecast by World Economics. But, factories working at full capacity and employees working on full shifts are not enough to ensure structural transformation. That’s why Russian experts have posed the question as one about the transformation to a new type of growth.
A country’s GDP, with PPP factored in, represents the absolute volume of the given country’s market. It is an important metric of international competitiveness that reflects the domestic market’s capacity and the possibility of realizing savings on the scale of production even without exports, explained Valery Mironov, deputy director of the Development Center Institute at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University).
"Only a large country has the opportunity to create a highly diversified economy capable of ensuring sovereignty in key spheres that are critical for economic security, under the conditions of deglobalization and regionalization of the international economy," he noted. This, above all, includes such fields as the military-industrial complex, food supplies, pharmaceuticals and information and communication technologies.
"There exist both extensive and intensive forms of development of a national economy. The first presumes a quantitative increase in resources, while the second implies a qualitative change," Daniil Gonenko, associate professor at the Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), explained. "In some developed countries, significant GDP growth is practically impossible because the economy has reached its limit and it simply has nowhere to grow. As for our country, we need to talk about the necessity of combining qualitative and quantitative properties at once," he told the newspaper.
"In 2022, growth was ensured by federal spending on major infrastructure projects (transport and logistics, construction)," added Olga Lebedinskaya of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. However, she expects that, "the extensive growth that has prevailed thus far will inevitably become intensive qualitative growth."
Izvestia: Russia-bound charter flights from Asia may increase substantially
Programs for charter flights from Southeast Asia to Russia may be significantly expanded. Russia’s aviation authorities have asked carriers to consider launching year-round flights from Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia to various Russian cities. The need to expand the geography of such flights is explained by "growing demand from tourists traveling to Russia."
According to Russian Travel Industry Union Vice President Yury Barzykin, these days Russia is mostly visited by tourists from China and India. "After the visa-free group tour regime was introduced for China starting from August 1, 2023, the tourist flow will increase significantly. Potentially, by the fall the Russian government may introduce the same regime for India as well. As for other Southeast Asian countries, the flow is insignificant but it could also be stimulated by introducing an electronic visa for over 50 countries," he told Izvestia.
Increased demand is being observed in the opposite direction as well, i.e. among Russians traveling to Asia, noted Artur Muradyan, vice president of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR).
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