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Oil prices to return to $80 per barrel soon, experts say

The response of the US Federal Reserve and possible rate lowering by it, the situation with financial and economic stimulation in China, and the OPEC+ response will drive prices further, Dmitry Skryabin believes

MOSCOW, August 5. /TASS/. The drop of global oil prices is associated with the recent macroeconomic statistics of the US and China and will hardly last for long, experts questioned by TASS say.

Brent oil futures with the delivery in October fell below $76 per barrel for the first time since January and is now close to $75 per barrel on the London-based ICE for the first time since this January.

"The reason of the decline since Friday are poor data of the US labor market, which resulted in the reassessment (increase) of the recession scenario probability. It should not be said everything is glittering from the standpoint of long-term prospects, considering also poor macro statistics from China, the top oil importer globally," Dmitry Skryabin from Alfa-Capital says.

The response of the US Federal Reserve and possible rate lowering by it, the situation with financial and economic stimulation in China, and the OPEC+ response will drive prices further, he believes. "The cartel responded fairly efficiently before to the price drop and market imbalance risks. Probably, it will be managed to do this time also, making possible to ‘return’ the Brent price above $80 per barrel by the end of this year," the expert adds.

The average Brent price will be $80 per barrel but higher volatility is not ruled out, Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya from BCS Investment World says. "The current oil price is in the buyers’ zone on the whole. The length of staying in this zone will depend on the demand strength. Considering the OPEC+ policy and the situation in the Middle East, the recovery of oil prices can be expected soon," she notes.

It is premature to speak about the evolving stable downward trend for prices, Ivan Timonin from Implementa says. Oil consumption may grow by more than one million barrels daily this year on account of China and other Asian countries, while supply growth prospects are not so high. "The market will therefore be close to the balance but small shortages are possible. Prices in this regard will probably settle at $75-80 [per barrel] in coming months but will demonstrate non-dramatic growth to about $85 a barrel closer to the year-end," he adds.

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Collapse of Operation Citadel 2.0

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Russian forces wipe out several dozen Ukrainian militants near Slavyansk in DPR

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