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Bank of Russia worsens forecast for key rate for 2024 to 13.5-15.5%

The regulator also indicated that it is too early to judge the sustainability of the emerging disinflationary trends

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia increased the forecast for the average key rate for 2024 from 12.5-14.5% to 13.5-15.5%, the regulator said in its report on Friday.

The Bank of Russia expects the average key rate in 2025 to reach 8-10%, while the earlier forecast was around 7-9%. The regulator kept the forecast for 2026 at 6-7%.

The regulator also notes that taking into account the fact that from January 1 to February 18, 2024, the average key rate is 16%, from February 19 to the end of 2024, the average key rate is projected to be in the range of 13.2-15.5%.

Earlier on Friday the Bank of Russia decided to maintain the key rate at 16% per annum at its first meeting in 2024, indicating that it is too early to judge the sustainability of the emerging disinflationary trends. "On 16 February 2024, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 16.00% per annum. Current inflationary pressures have eased compared with the autumn months but remain high. Domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the production of goods and services. A judgement on the sustainable nature of emerging disinflationary trends would be premature. The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy is set to solidify disinflation processes unfolding in the national economy," the regulator said.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia raised its forecast for the average key rate for 2024 from 12.5-14.5% to 13.5-15.5%. In 2025, the rate is expected to be 8-10%, against the previous forecast of 7-9%, the forecast for 2026 reached 6-7%.

The Bank of Russia will hold its next key rate review meeting on March 22, 2024.

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