MOSCOW, July 25. /TASS/. Putin stresses peace, progress in pre-summit missive to African nations; US submarine port calls raising tensions in East Asia at South Korea’s expense; and Kiev rescheduling its promised military victory to next summer. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Putin stresses peace, progress, future success in missive to African nations
Russian President Vladimir Putin penned an article titled "Russia and Africa: Joining Efforts for Peace, Progress and a Successful Future" on the eve of the Russia-Africa Summit, set to take place in St. Petersburg on July 27-28, which has been published on the Kremlin website and in foreign media outlets. In his missive, the president highlighted the Soviet Union’s legacy of assisting Africa’s development, expressed support for the sovereignty of African nations and emphasized that Moscow was strongly committed to the notion of "African solutions to African problems," Vedomosti writes.
A considerable part of the article is dedicated to recent developments surrounding the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal. Putin stressed that the Istanbul agreements of July 2022 had failed to produce any specific results. He also pointed out that, despite sanctions, Russia would continue working to supply African nations with grain, food and fertilizer, and would also continue to strengthen ties both with individual countries and regional organizations, including the African Union.
Diplomatic sources told Vedomosti that Putin had mentioned the African Union for a reason, namely that the summit agenda may focus not only on contacts with the leaders of specific African countries but also with members of organizations representing the African continent as a whole.
The African Union, a powerful international organization bringing together 55 nations, is an important platform for resolving problems between its members, said Rakhimbek Bobokhonov, senior researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for African Studies. "Given that the summit’s agenda will include the entire range of regional issues - from security to ethnic and religious relations - the presence of the organization’s leader would be logical and justified," the expert noted.
According to Bobokhonov, the African Union provides the countries of the continent with the opportunity to resolve their domestic issues, so it is not surprising that Russia will implement some of its African projects in conjunction with the organization. In addition, in the expert’s words, many African nations wish to join the BRICS group, currently consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, while the summit is highly likely to discuss the creation of a single currency. Since expectations are high for the single currency plan and the summit in general, international officials in charge of these matters may be attending the event, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: US raising tensions in Asia at South Korea's expense
Another US nuclear-powered submarine, the second one in a week and over the past several decades, has appeared off the shores of South Korea, arriving at a naval base on the island of Jeju in the Korea Strait. The presence of US submarines off the Korean coast became possible after the signing of a declaration on deterring North Korea, but such actions by the US are destabilizing the situation on the peninsula and provoking Pyongyang. However, experts believe that there is no threat of a serious escalation between the two Korean states, while tensions are being fueled as part of the US-China standoff in the Asia-Pacific region, Izvestia notes.
The United States’ actions can either encourage Pyongyang to engage in talks or trigger a sharp reaction, noted Vasily Klimov, junior research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations and an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.
Military expert Andrey Frolov emphasized that visits by US submarines were fueling regional tensions and posed a clear challenge to North Korea and, to a lesser extent, to China.
According to Maxim Nikulin, leading expert with the Center for Applied Analysis of International Transformations at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, what is currently happening on the Korean Peninsula generally fits in with the ongoing US-Chinese standoff in the Asia-Pacific region. The expert pointed out that while these developments were the result of increasing tensions on the peninsula, the parties are hardly interested in sparking a full-scale military confrontation.
In discussing China’s position, Nikulin noted that Washington’s reaction to Pyongyang’s activities was particularly important for Beijing. "Given rising tensions around Taiwan and the US obligations to the island, the Chinese government is monitoring US readiness to support its allies in the Asia-Pacific region," the analyst said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev rescheduling promised military victory to next summer
Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov said that F-16 fighters would be flying over Ukraine next spring. According to him, the use of more advanced foreign-made aircraft will allow the Ukrainian armed forces to achieve victory in the conflict in the summer of 2024. Thus, Kiev has effectively postponed its victory, which it had initially promised would be forthcoming this summer, by an entire year. Meanwhile, although the military standoff is about to ramp up to a new level, the F-16s will not be a game-changer that could enable Ukraine to radically alter the situation on the line of engagement, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Reznikov clarified that the NATO training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, expected to begin in August, would take up to six months. In addition, Kiev still must resolve a knot of infrastructure issues involved in arranging proper facilities that can handle and service the fourth-generation fighter jets. In effect, this means that, on the most optimistic estimates, the F-16s will not appear over Ukrainian skies before the spring of 2024 at the earliest.
Kiev expects that the delivery of F-16s will help provide air support for its troops, thus enabling them to change the situation in the combat zone, Andrey Gurulyov, retired Russian general and member of the State Duma (lower house of parliament) Defense Committee, explained. In his view, the F-16s are dangerous because they are capable of carrying high-precision weapons, including Storm Shadow long-range missiles and Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), items that Kiev has been persistently requesting for its arsenal. In the meantime, Russia’s "attack aircraft are conducting successful precision strikes." "In particular, we are targeting the enemy’s logistics hubs, ammunition depots and command posts. The airfields where the F-16s will be stationed will also come under attack," Gurulyov noted.
According to the influential lawmaker, as Kiev is receiving new foreign-made weapons, the confrontation is clearly being ramped up to a new level. The Ukrainian armed forces are also trying to test Russian defenses in various areas. Russia needs to take such risks seriously and consider them when taking action, the Duma Defense Committee member concluded.
Izvestia: EU, US fail in efforts to reconcile Serbia, Kosovo
Brussels acknowledges that the process of normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina, which had proceeded under EU auspices in recent months, has now stalled. According to Miroslav Lajcak, the European Union’s envoy to the Balkans, the focus currently is not on normalizing relations between the parties but on managing the crisis, Izvestia writes.
Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina rose once again following this spring’s local elections in the largely-Serb populated northern Kosovo. Ethnic Albanians were elected as mayor in all four northern cities with majority Serb populations due to low voter turnout. The Serbs tried to bar the newly elected mayors from entering their respective city halls but Kosovo riot police dispersed the protesters. The standoff between the Serbs and the Kosovo police escalated into clashes with troops from the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) peacekeeping contingent. In mid-July, the EU attempted to bring the parties to the negotiating table. Brussels expected that Lajcak would first hold separate meetings with representatives of the parties and then a joint meeting would subsequently be convened. However, it never took place.
"In fact, no talks leading to long-term tactical compromises have been going on there since 2020, so the very format of normalization negotiations exhausted itself quite a long time ago," said Yekaterina Entina, head of the Center for Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe. In her opinion, by pointing to a shift from normalizing relations to reducing the intensity of the conflict, the EU and the US are negating the agreements achieved in Brussels in 2013, which were crucial for the Serbs. "Pristina’s obligations, in particular, included the mandate to establish a community of Serb municipalities. This issue is directly related to all the troubles and tensions that have been taking place in the past year-and-a-half," the expert explained.
This does not necessarily signal that the European Union is conceding its weakness and is no longer willing to act as an international mediator, Entina pointed out. "It could easily be a deliberate step by the European commissioner and US partners aimed at delegitimizing the joint agreement and reshuffling the cards at the negotiating table between Belgrade and Pristina," the political expert emphasized.
Kommersant: Price of Russian wheat rising on back of upward global trend
Wheat prices are rising on global commodity exchanges once again following missile strikes on Danube River ports, which are threatening Ukrainian food exports in the wake of the Black Sea grain deal suspension. The price of Russian wheat may grow to $250-260 per ton. Russian wheat exports are expected to set a new record this season, Kommersant writes.
Sovecon Director Andrey Sizov pointed out that the attacks on Danube ports may turn out to have more impact on the market than the damage done to Odessa terminals. The Danube has become the main route for Ukrainian grain exports in recent months, Sizov noted. Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, noted that the damage caused to the Danube terminals has affected a crucial channel for the export of Ukrainian grain, which is why the markets are reacting so strongly.
Analysts stressed after the suspension of the grain deal that Ukraine could fulfill its export plans in the current season, even without using deep-water terminals on the Black Sea, by redirecting grain flows via the Danube and overland EU routes. However, Ukraine’s land-based agricultural exports are also restricted. The European Commission banned the import of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seed to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia until September 15 after complaints of dumping and a market glut by local farmers. On July 26, the NATO-Ukraine Council is expected to hold a meeting to discuss the transportation of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.
Russian wheat exports may reach record levels this season. In July, Sovecon raised its export forecast from 45.7 mln tons to 47.2 mln tons for wheat, and from 57.2 mln tons to 58.9 mln tons for all grain. Last season, which ended in June 2023, Russia exported a total of 58.3 mln tons of grain, including 46.6 mln tons of wheat, analysts pointed out. The expected decline in Ukrainian and Australian exports will serve to boost Russian wheat exports in the new season, Sovecon experts said. A source at a major export company told Kommersant that he expected Russian wheat to remain cheaper than European grain despite rising prices, thus retaining a competitive edge.
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