Media: UK unlikely to change anti-Russian policy after Johnson steps down
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has finally announced his resignation. The ruling Conservative Party is now expected to choose a new leader who will head the government. However, London’s anti-Russian policy won’t change under a new prime minister, Vedomosti writes.
The negative attitude to Russia became an integral part of the UK’s policies under Johnson and it will hardly change in the foreseeable future and London will remain Moscow’s most vehement opponent in Western Europe, Deputy Director of Higher School of Economics’ Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies Dmitry Suslov emphasized. According to him, Brexit also played a role here as London has to stay in the US orbit. "There is a strong anti-Russian consensus among the Conservative Party’s elite. And since the most likely candidates for prime minister are [Foreign Secretary Liz] Truss and [Defense Secretary Ben] Wallace, who are among the chief advocates of this policy, changes should not be expected," Suslov emphasized.
"After announcing resignation plans, a prime minister usually carries on with the job until the ruling party chooses a new leader. However, this time, the Tories have grown so intolerant of Johnson that they don’t want him to continue on as prime minister," Head of the British Studies Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe Yelena Ananyeva explained to Izvestia. "Now, there are plans to replace Johnson with some kind of a technical officer who will do the prime minister’s job until the election," the expert added.
When a ruling party changes its leader in between parliamentary elections, there is always a problem because the new prime minister only gets support from his party but not from all British voters. In order to strengthen his or her position, the new prime minister may call an early election. However, expert on British politics Vasily Yegorov believes that it is unlikely to happen this time because the United Kingdom’s economy is going through hard times and the Tories won’t have the courage to call a snap election but will opt to wait for the routine one, scheduled for 2024.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: FBI, UK intel caution Western business world of potential fallout from Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Two major intelligence agencies have for the first time united their voices to speak about the Chinese threat. FBI Director Christopher Wray stated that Beijing was meddling with US politics, including elections. Director General of the UK’s MI5 Ken McCallum, in turn, said that London had prevented the transfer of military aviation information to Beijing. According to Wray, Taiwan joining China would lead to a global economic collapse as foreign companies would be nationalized in China or handed over to the Chinese. Beijing rejected these allegations but launched tests to figure out its economy’s ability to respond to the sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
The fact that the FBI and MI5 decided to warn the business world about how dangerous it is to deal with China is not surprising, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin pointed out. "The United Kingdom is unable to take serious action in the Pacific Ocean but it has always been strong in terms of intelligence. As for China’s efforts to protect itself from sanctions similar to the anti-Russian ones, work is indeed underway. The Chinese are conducting stress tests, working on a massive scale to collect information about the sanctions imposed on Russia and Russia’s response to them," the expert explained.
According to Kashin, a thing to note is that it will be extremely difficult to impose the same restrictions against China as against Russia. "China is the world’s largest trade power. If anyone tried to establish a blockade of China like it has been done with Russia, that would be a shock to the global economy that would trigger the collapse of all production chains," the analyst stressed.
The nationalization of Western assets or their transfer to Russian owners continues in Russia, Kashin noted. In China, that would be a process on an astronomical scale. The annual revenues of US companies alone in China are about $700 bln, and 70,000 US companies are active in the country. It’s easy to imagine what will happen if China responds to possible sanctions the way Russia did, the analyst emphasized.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Anti-Russia sanctions strangling efforts to prevent global hunger
About ten percent of the world’s population is starving and the problem will only worsen, experts say. The anti-Russia sanctions are one of the culprits. Such a large country could feed the world, but Europe and the US need to stop obstructing equipment and supplies of technology for that to happen, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The West has been speculating about the growing global food crisis since late February, trying to pin the blame on Russia. The West is alleging that Russia is preventing the export of Ukrainian grain so food prices are soaring because of Moscow. However, experts have repeatedly pointed out that the issue had become apparent long before the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.
The US and Europe’s shift to biofuels was one of the reasons that triggered the spike in food prices, along with climate change and the coronavirus pandemic, Higher School of Economics Director for Agricultural Policy Evgenia Serova said earlier.
Russia, with its vast territory and major freshwater resources, can play "a colossal role" in solving the hunger dilemma, Deputy Chief of the State Duma Committee on Ecology, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Vyacheslav Fetisov noted. However, access to global markets has been complicated for Russian grain. At the same time, several large agricultural equipment producers and suppliers of seed and plant protection agents have announced plans to leave the Russian market, Chairman of the Board of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin noted. "It will not harm Russia because it is self-sustained. However, it will reduce our export potential, which means that Russia will be able to provide less supplies to developing countries," the expert explained.
Izvestia: Why Russia and Norway are at loggerheads over the Barents Sea
Russian lawmakers are weighing the possibility of denouncing or suspending a treaty that establishes the country's maritime border with Norway in the Barents Sea, Izvestia writes.
Treaties on territorial and maritime delineation don’t provide for their termination because their goal is to end territorial disputes. "However, in the current situation, even if Russia refrains from denouncing the treaty, it may suspend cooperation on some issues, particularly fishing and hydrocarbons," Russian Maritime Law Association President Konstantin Krasnokutsky pointed out.
Another treaty under discussion concerns the Svalbard archipelago. Since 1920, it has belonged to Norway but the country is obliged to provide unfettered access and an opportunity to carry out economic activities to other parties of the treaty. Still, Oslo tends to view the document as proof of its full sovereignty over Svalbard.
In March 2022, Norway joined some of the EU’s sanctions against Russia. In particular, Oslo cited the restrictions when it banned the delivery of cargo to the Russian settlement of Barentsburg. Although in the end, Norway allowed the cargo to be transported there, the issue highlights the need to initiate discussions among the parties to the treaty, because many things have changed in the past 100 years, Head of the Center for Arctic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe Valery Zhuravel noted.
"Canada, Denmark and Iceland are also displeased with Norway’s activities, namely its efforts to establish a fisheries protection zone," the expert stressed. However, even with shared interests, Western countries are unlikely to support Moscow’s initiative to hold new consultations on Svalbard in the current situation.
Kommersant: Kaliningrad transit issue still remains deadlocked
Lithuania has strongly rejected the idea of a corridor for the transit of Russian goods to the country’s westernmost exclave of Kaliningrad, while Moscow is considering responding by banning imports flows through the Baltic countries. The European Commission, which can authorize the transit on a limited scale, has not given any clarification yet. Market participants believe that Russia’s possible ban will worsen logistics problems, Kommersant notes.
FM Logistic Director for Business Development in Russia Alexey Misailov points out that so far, there have been no signs of a reduction in road cargo traffic because the bulk of the cargo is made by consumer goods, food and other items that haven’t been sanctioned by the EU. Sanctioned goods are now delivered by sea.
According to Production Department Director at Novelco Viktoria Vlasova, after Lithuania imposed restrictions, shippers urgently started shifting to use aircraft and boats. "Cargo traffic hasn’t declined but it has been divided between other delivery options," she noted. "Trucks continue to use a route crossing the Lithuania-Russia border but goods are thoroughly inspected, which creates long lines," the expert added.
When commenting on the initiative to restrict the transit of goods to Russia via the Baltic states, Vlasova pointed to the possible rise in logistics costs, adding that trucks traveling from China to the EU via Russia would have to make a long detour through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, which would affect transportation costs and delivery times. Besides, if transit via the Baltic states is banned, Poland will become a monopolist in this field. VIG Trans founder Igor Rebelsky believes that it will lead to a spike in shipping prices and a decline in the range of European-made goods available in Russia.
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