MOSCOW, August 28. /TASS/. Russia’s coal export has reached its record levels of 2021-2022, while further on, through 2050, supplies to foreign markets are expected to gradually fall, according to research by analysts from Yakov and Partners (formerly McKinsey in Russia).
Experts expect no tailspin as exports are projected to fall gradually within several years due to the fact that developing markets will still need Russian coal.
"[Export] will gradually decline despite the demand from developing countries, through 2050. Depending on scenario, the drop may total from 3% to 67%," Yakov and Partners said.
The fact that China and India, one of key importers, will seek to providing their economies with own coal, will influence negatively, experts said, adding that because of this, prior markets for Russia will substantially change.
For example, on steam coal India will still be a key consumer of the Russian coal by 2030, while by 2050 its share will go down, whereas that of the market of Southeastern Asia will rise from the current 20-25% to over 60%.
"Overall, in the base case scenario the total export of coal from Russia will not take a major hit. In 2022, it amounted to around 221 mln tons, by 2030 in the most probable scenario it will decline by less than 1% to 219 mln tons, while by 2050 it will stand at 218 mln tons," a partner of the consultancy and co-author of the research Dmitry Vasyukov noted.