MOSCOW, August 22. /TASS/. Diverging views among WTO member states on key issues may result in the organization splitting into two or more blocs, Head of the Trade Policy Department at the Higher School of Economics, Maxim Medvedkov, who also was the former head of the Economic Development Ministry’s trade talks department, said in an op-ed for TASS.
Today’s most probable scenario is "the continuation of the Geneva shell [of the WTO] with a multidirectional driving force of key groups inside," according to Medvedkov who headed Moscow’s delegation at the talks on Russia joining the World Trade Organization. "The WTO may split into two or more blocs and lose part of its global universality. But in this case, the WTO may also play a positive role for the regional economy, maintaining the functions of a rule-maker and an arbitrator," he explained.
Today’s agenda does not include the creation of a principally new trade organization to replace the WTO, the expert noted. "Global trade should at least gain some margin of safety for such ambitious experiments," he added.
Another possible way to cultivate international agreements in the field of trade, according to Medvedkov, could be the development of a system of pacts open for accession by other countries "with the same regulatory philosophy in the sector in question, or on the replacement of established norms, and on the development of behavioral requirements adapted to technological innovation."
Medvedkov attributes the possibility of positive changes within the WTO to the refusal of countries to use trade restrictions as a means of pressure and to provide multilateral guarantees on trade security.