BEIJING, August 6. /TASS/. Israel has recently been using extremely risky methods in attempts to eliminate the geopolitical threat posed by Iran, which nevertheless cannot guarantee its security in the Middle East, Professor Zhu Yongbiao, the director of the School of Politics and International Relations at Lanzhou University (Northwest China), has told TASS.
"I think that Israel is actually trying to use such incidents to earn support from countries like the United States, to make the problem large-scale and then try to eliminate it once and for all," Zhu said about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Hamas movement, and the escalation of the conflict in the region, including growing frictions with Tehran. "Israel sees Iran as a major threat and is trying to use extreme methods to draw the US into its plans to help it resolve the problem."
As Zhu clarified, it is for this reason that the Israeli side "continues to resort to extreme measures, trying to expand the war zone and the front line, pursuing a desperate strategy." The way he sees it, Israel is "absolutely self-confidently seeking to drag the United States" into the conflict and "find a comprehensive solution to the crisis situation."
The expert believes that the Israeli side will be unable to eliminate the problem by means of a simple war or a large-scale military operation.
"I believe that this will not guarantee Israel's security and its core interests. Neither in the short term nor in the long term," he emphasized. "Whether Israel will be able to achieve key objectives mainly depends on the United States."
Zhu remarked that Iran and the "affiliated organizations" it supports do not wish to be drawn into a direct conflict or into a state of international war.
"Tehran is trying to avoid this, which can be considered the main reason why it is showing certain restraint," the scholar added. "In the current situation, the position of the US, which does not want hostilities to erupt, too, is very important. Washington is keen to avoid triggering hostilities itself or being dragged into them by Israel."
Escalation risks
The expert recalled that the United States had no wish to depend on Israel in the above issue.
"But the extreme scenario is still possible, because the Israeli side is gradually pushing ahead with the preemptive strategy. This process may entail Iran’s countermeasures or counterattack," he explained.
Zhu warned of the existence of some "unforeseen factors." In particular, Tehran may try to establish control over the situation "within a certain range," but this will eventually lead to the expansion of the conflict. "This could happen in the case of massive civilian casualties or the destruction of key Israeli facilities," he explained. "An increasingly large-scale response from the Israeli side would follow. It is not excluded that the US will go along with it in this case."
Zhu clarified that the probability of such a scenario was "relatively small." According to him, military methods "do not serve as a guarantor of Israel's strategic security interests."
"The Israeli side does not have the resources to wipe Iran off the face of the earth or deal a lethal blow to it," the expert said. "Even if a military operation is carried out, and even if it yields success at a certain stage, the effect of it can be very short-term."
Israel's attempts to use force to put pressure on the Iranian side will not bring tangible results. "Even if in an extreme situation there is a regime change in Iran, it will not fundamentally affect Iranian-Israeli relations. Neither in the short term nor in the long term," he concluded.
On July 31, Hamas said that Haniyeh was killed as a result of an Israeli strike on the residence of the head of the movement's political bureau in Tehran, where he had arrived for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Israel would be severely punished for the killing of the Palestinian politician.