BEIJING, July 20. /TASS/. The termination of the grain deal increases the pressure on the land transport of agricultural products in Europe and can aggravate tension between Ukraine and its neighbors. Zhang Xin, associate professor at the East China Normal University, expressed this opinion in an interview with a TASS correspondent on Thursday.
"The termination of the agreement on the Black Sea may further increase the burden on the land transport channel. In particular, pressure on the domestic grain market of transit countries in Central and Eastern Europe may grow," the international expert said.
"In this regard, friction between Poland, as well as a number of other states and Ukraine, may further intensify," he said.
According to him, if part of the grain that cannot be exported through the sea is further redirected through the land channel from Ukraine to Europe, then the situation with the grain market in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe may worsen in the short term.
Zhang Xin pointed out that due to the limited transport capacity and infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe, a significant part of the land export of grain from Ukraine may get stuck in transit countries, which have their local producers of this agricultural product.
He suggested that the termination of the deal would also affect a number of countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia.
A package of documents geared to resolve the problem of food and fertilizer supplies on global markets was signed on July 22, 2022 in Istanbul and extended several times since then before ultimately expiring on July 17. Russia refused to extend it again because the part of the deal envisaging the removal of obstacles for Russian agricultural exports has never been implemented. Apart from that, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the bulk of grain that was meant to be supplied to the poorest counties was shipped to Western countries. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is ready to resurrect the deal but only after its part related to obligations to Moscow is fulfilled.
In April, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, protecting the interests of their farmers, banned the import of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine. Later, they canceled these measures in exchange for the decision of the European Commission to establish, first until June 5, and then until September 15, an embargo on supplies from Ukraine of four types of grains and oilseeds - wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds.
On July 19, five Central European countries announced that they had asked the European Commission to extend this embargo until the end of the year. At the same time, they allowed the transit of Ukrainian grain through their territory to world markets.