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Russian expert says inter-Korean summit unlikely to ensure progress in denuclearization

The summit is due to be held in Pyongyang on September 18-20

SHANGHAI, September 17. /TASS/. Stability on the Korean Peninsula may be the best result of the inter-Korean summit scheduled to take place in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang on September 18-20, but no serious breakthroughs should be expected, Director of the Russian Strategy for Asia Center of the Institute of Economics at Russia’s Academy of Sciences Georgy Toloraya told TASS on Monday.

"It must be said that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is complicated because the forces that do not want stabilization and progress are strong," said Toloraya, who participated in an international conference dubbed China And Eurasia: Towards a New Quality of Cooperation and Development at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. In this regard he said that the US establishment "is interested in maintaining the situation of controlled chaos that makes it possible for the US Navy to remain there and oppose China," even though US President Donald Trump wishes to find a way out of the years-long impasse. The expert noted that it was not the only factor which was affecting the situation though it was the only one working against all positive trends.

In the Russian expert’s view, credit should be given to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who has been consistently implementing his beliefs about the need to cooperate and improve relations with North Korea, while losing the people’s support not only because of his policy towards Pyongyang but also due to a number of other factors, including social and economic issues South Korea has been facing and the country’s domestic political situation. "His level of support has dropped and it will affect his position in talks with Kim Jong-un," Toloraya said, adding that Washington’s dissatisfaction with Moon Jae-in’s policy towards North Korea was one of the factors weakening the South Korean president’s position. "Neither of the parties has been emphasizing this fact but it is clear that the US grip remains very strong," the expert said.

"Under these circumstances, one can hope that Moon Jae-in will manage to become a mediator between Kim Jong-un and Trump, moving their dialogue forward, but it is unlikely to happen. The denuclearization issue, as Moon said, will be the focus of talks, but it is an issue for North Korea and the US, and not for South Korea," the expert stressed. According to him, Pyongyang may only ask Seoul explain to its US patron that "they can’t be seriously demanding a unilateral denuclearization without taking any reciprocal steps."

"If Moon succeeds in making Trump and his administration understand it, and the US does at least something, even some symbolic effort to advance the process, then we will witness a period of stability instead of a deteriorating situation," Toloraya said. In his opinion, such a standstill would be a good thing because no nuclear and missile tests have been taking place, as well as no military provocations, there are no US aircraft carriers and strategic bombers in South Korea, while some kind of negotiations are underway. "From this standpoint, if a new inter-Korean summit facilitates stability, it will be a success," Toloraya noted.

The expert did not rule out that the summit would help boost inter-Korean cooperation in some specific projects. "Naturally, Russia is first and foremost interested in railway transit and other trilateral projects. We very much hope that South Korea will once again consider the possibility of container transit in relation to the Hasan-Radzhin project because it will be beneficial for everyone and it will not be easy to sanction such activities," Toloraya concluded.

Inter-Korean summit

The inter-Korean summit will be held in the North Korean capital on September 18-20. A source in Moon Jae-in’s administration said that the South Korean delegation will consist of more than 200 members, including former Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang, who has been recently elected to lead the country’s ruling Democratic Party, and Samsung Electronics CEO Kim Ki-nam.