MOSCOW, May 5. /TASS/. The number of unemployed people in Russia may grew to 5-7 mln people in 2020 due to the lockdown caused by the situation with the coronavirus, Alexander Safonov, Vice-Rector of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper on Tuesday.
According to him, the downtime of enterprises leads to the formation of debts, including wages and taxes. Therefore, if self-isolation due to the situation with coronavirus lasts for at least more than a month, this can lead to a wave of unemployment.
"In the first month of self-isolation, employers used mechanisms that prevented massive layoffs. These are the so-called administrative holidays, when an employee has to take an unpaid leave," the expert said. Enterprises used such practice during the crises of the 1990s and 2008-2009, he recalled.
However, after a month of self-isolation, people who are now on unpaid administrative leave will have to start thinking about their future.
"If the situation with coronavirus is delayed for more than a month, then, of course, there will not be enough personal reserves, and it will be necessary to draw up a dismissal. Then we will see the second wave of unemployment growth," he said.
The economist also determined two scenarios of rising unemployment - optimistic and pessimistic.
"Currently there are approximately 70 million employed and 3.5 million unemployed in Russia, taking into account those who have not applied to the employment service. This is 5% of the employed. Under the optimistic forecast, by the end of the year, the number of unemployed will grow by about 1.5 million people, up to 5 million. And this is about 7.3%," the economist predicts.
Under the negative scenario, according to the expert, unemployment can reach 7 million people, which will be 10.5% of the working population.
"Taking into account the factors working for for us in the labor market: big employment in the public sector, the practice of enterprises to reduce labor and personnel costs instead of layoffs, administrative leave, - an optimistic scenario will become possible and the number of unemployed will grow to a maximum of 5-5.5 million people," Safonov said.
He stressed that now some companies are considering the possibility of reducing wages by up to 30%. At the same time, the sector of employment financed from the budget remains "an island of stability."
"These are the salaries of doctors, teachers, and numerous employees who are paid from the budget. This is 14 million people. Their employment will generally be more stable. Of course, some reductions are possible there, but they will not be fatal and will differ from the commercial sector. Therefore, most likely, we will see a reduction in average wages in the economy in the range of 10-15%," the expert concluded.