MOSCOW, July 2. /TASS/. Ukraine is willing to hold talks with Russia through mediators; Russia gets set to suspend participation in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly; and the US Supreme Court rules on immunity for Donald Trump. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Ukraine willing to hold talks with Russia through mediators
Russia is ready to resume dialogue on Ukraine as long as it achieves its goals, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, commenting on Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s statement about Kiev’s willingness to hold talks with Moscow through intermediaries, just like the two countries did in the grain deal, which involved Turkey and the United Nations, Vedomosti notes.
Moscow is unlikely to go for Zelensky’s plan, as the grain deal mechanism saw it get the short end of the stick, not meeting the conditions put forward by Russia, Vladimir Bruter, an expert with the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, said. According to him, "the main beneficiary of the Ukrainian crisis remains behind the scenes." "I believe that a breakthrough will only be possible if Russia and the US launch direct talks," the analyst noted.
Turkey is not a suitable mediator because despite being a good trade and economic partner of Russia, the country is also a member of the hostile NATO bloc, Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine Department at the Institute of CIS Studies, explained. "There is no need to talk about neutrality, just look at the inequity of the Minsk and Istanbul agreements," he noted.
"Given the situation on the frontline, it’s Ukraine that should be willing to make concessions because Russia has withstood the pressure of sanctions and its defense industry is actively developing. Besides, Moscow’s position is supported by the majority of countries," Skorikov emphasized.
This is not the first time that the Ukrainian authorities have sought to change their approach to resolving the crisis, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out. "In the past two and a half years, Kiev has changed its rhetoric several times. Going back to 2014, the Ukrainian authorities have been pursuing a consistent policy aimed at steering the conversation away from functional issues and holding discussions for the sake of discussions. As for the Ukrainian leader’s statements, they can hardly be seen as a clear position seeking peace agreements," the expert said.
Izvestia: Russia to suspend participation in OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
Russia’s upper and lower houses of parliament, the Federation Council and the State Duma, are expected to decide to suspend Moscow’s participation in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly on July 3. That said, the country’s withdrawal from the OSCE is not currently being discussed as Russia reserves the right to return if conditions are improved for its delegation, said parliament members interviewed by Izvestia.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, pointed out that since 2022, Russia has faced increasing obstacles from the organization, such as its delegation members being denied entry visas and the right to speak.
Konstantin Kosachev, a member of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, noted that "the OSCE was conceived as a platform for comparing positions and trying to align them, if possible." "The OSCE has recently stopped addressing general issues, becoming a vehicle for the collective West to impose its views on all others. It’s not us that have changed but the organization; it has been changed from within and actually destroyed. It certainly makes no sense for Russia to work in an organization that no longer is a platform for comparing and harmonizing positions," the senator stated. "If and when the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly creates normal conditions for our work, if and when we receive guarantees and the principle of consensus is established in the organization, the decision may be reviewed," Kosachev added.
Alexey Fenenko, professor with the Department of International Security at Moscow State University’s Faculty of World Politics, believes that things are heading towards Russia’s gradual withdrawal from the OSCE. "Following Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s high-profile statement in 2004 that the OSCE in its current shape does not suit us, Russia has been trying to promote various reforms of the organization. But this did not work out at all," the expert explained. "In fact, we have to deal with a new version of the Russia-NATO Council. I think that it’s only a matter of time before Russia decides to pull out of it," Fenenko added.
Vedomosti: What US Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity means for Trump
The US Supreme Court has ruled that former President Donald Trump is not entitled to blanket immunity from prosecution. The court said in its July 1 ruling that ex-heads of state have full immunity from prosecution for actions that were within their constitutional powers as presidents, but not for private acts, Vedomosti writes.
In this regard, a decision was made to send the 2021 Capitol attack case to a lower court to figure out which of the categories Trump’s actions fall into. However, since the Supreme Court’s decision can be broadly interpreted, the US president may actually be protected from any prosecution for actions taken while in office.
Even though the Supreme Court decided not to give Trump full immunity, the ruling will make it somewhat easier for him to run his election campaign, Lev Sokolshchik, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said. Mostly, this will ease the ex-president’s financial burden, allowing him to save on lawyers and consultants, Sokolshchik noted.
Meanwhile, given that the Supreme Court denied Trump blanket immunity, he could still face criminal prosecution for actions taken before his election as president.
Still, the Supreme Court’s decision can be seen as a win for Trump, lawyer Dmitry Agranovsky pointed out. "All in all, the Supreme Court’s ruling makes it clear that the US judicial system is not ready to put the stability of the country’s political system at risk, especially during an election campaign," the expert said.
Media: Russian LNG exports to Europe soar despite sanctions
Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose by 2.7% year on year in the first half of 2024, with supplies to European Union countries growing the most and France being the largest purchaser in the region, Kommersant writes.
Since the Red Sea remains closed for LNG supplies amid Houthi attacks and exports from the Middle East take a great deal of time, the convenient logistics of Russia’s Yamal LNG plant become very attractive, Viktor Katona from Kpler said. "The Atlantic region has come to rely on the supply options that are easily available. This is especially true for France, where gas tankers can bring LNG to consumers in nine to ten days," he explained.
Independent expert Alexander Sobko believes that rising exports prove the lenience of new sanctions on Russian LNG supplies. In his view, the restrictions won’t change much for market players because there is no need to redirect logistics routes. On the contrary, exports to the EU are becoming a better option than transhipment and re-exports, which will be banned in the coming months, he said.
In the meantime, Russian gas pipeline exports to Europe grew by 27% in the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, Vedomosti writes, citing data from Russian gas giant Gazprom and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).
Ronald Smith, senior analyst at BCS World Investments, explains that given a rise in LNG demand in Asia due to hot weather, global gas prices are getting higher. Notably, Russian gas prices for European importers depend either on oil prices or spot market prices with a lag of one to seven months, analysts point out. As a result, Russian gas prices currently look the most attractive for European consumers.
Igor Yushkov, leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, expects that gas supplies through the Ukrainian gas transportation system and the TurkStream pipeline will remain at the current levels "at least throughout the summer."
Izvestia: Russian companies boost profitability amid tough economic landscape
Russian companies boosted profitability by almost 25% in 2023 compared to the previous year, Izvestia writes, citing analytical data from the Federal Tax Service. Experts explain that although sanctions continue to have an impact on these numbers, many companies have adapted to the new situation.
The growth in profits is especially high in industries where costs are low, Ravil Akhmadeyev, associate professor with the Department of Public and Municipal Finance at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, explained. They operate mostly in domestic sectors that have been the least affected by sanctions, including the construction industry, information and communication services, food service and the hotel business.
Basically, rising profits are in line with Russia’s positive economic indicators, Andrey Stolyarov, associate professor with the Department of Financial Market Infrastructure at the Higher School of Economics, pointed out. Last year, Russia’s GDP rose by 3.6%.
Meanwhile, companies’ revenues fell by 36% in 2023, according to the Federal Tax Service’s data. The drop was due to external sanctions because companies need to rebuild supply chains and production processes, Andrey Borodkin, director general of the Tekhzor group of companies, noted. He added that the reasons for the decline in revenues also included inflation expectations and the Central Bank’s move to raise the key rate to 16% to combat them.
The upward trend in profits and the downward trend in revenues is likely here to stay for now, Borodkin went on to say. "Sanctions on Russia have a long-term impact and will continue to affect the situation. Companies will keep doing their best to reduce spending while maximizing profit," he noted.
However, business associations are more optimistic. The trade and logistics sectors have completely revamped how they do business and trade with members of the Shanghai Collective Organization and BRICS is growing, Alexey Khizhnyak from Business Russia emphasized. That said, he expects to see positive indicators in terms of both revenues and profits.
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