MOSCOW, October 24. /TASS/. The Pentagon is prompting Israel to take a "go slow" approach to its announced ground operation in the Gaza Strip; a major US newspaper reveals the CIA’s hand in training Ukrainian saboteurs to commit acts of terrorism on Russian soil; and top diplomats met in Tehran to discuss the situation in the South Caucasus. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Pentagon seeks to rein in Israel’s planned ground operation in Gaza
Washington is seeking to convince Israel to postpone the launch of its ground offensive in the Gaza Strip in order to buy time for talks with the Hamas leadership on releasing hostages. The US and some European countries are hoping that a diplomatic path still exists for freeing the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. As well, the Pentagon needs time to prepare for a potential escalation in the Middle East, which would threaten its military facilities and personnel. According to experts, postponing the operation will have a two-pronged effect.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) International Spokesperson Jonathan Conricus has said that the ground operation in Gaza is practically inevitable if the Hamas militants do not release all those captured and demilitarize. "The aim here is to totally dismantle Hamas from its military capabilities," he stressed. "If Hamas was to come out of their hiding places, […] return our hostages, all 212 of them, and surrender unconditionally, then the war would end," the military official added.
In a conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted that delaying the launch of the ground operation would have a dual effect. "On the one hand, this allows for spending more time on the additional training of mobilized reserves, which is important given how many of them have been mobilized for the Israeli army," he pointed out. "On the other hand, a prolonged wait for orders for those forces that are completely ready is already a negative factor because it is very difficult psychologically to have to wait a long time to receive orders for the launch of the ground operation," the expert explained.
Izvestia: Explosive report on CIA hand in terror hits on Russia augurs shift in Washington
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) controls the actions of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and is effectively managing the latter in its fight against Russia, experts polled by Izvestia said in commenting on a recent article in the Washington Post (WaPo) revealing that sabotage attacks against Russia, including the murders of journalist Darya Dugina and war correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky as well as attacks on the Crimean Bridge, were carried out by SBU operatives trained by the CIA.
Alexey Zhuravlyov, first deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house) Defense Committee, said: "It was no secret for anyone that murders committed on Russian soil, including those of Darya Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky, were carried out by the SBU, whose agents are trained by US intelligence. Going back to the days of the Maidan coup, an entire floor of the Security Service of Ukraine building on Vladimirskaya Street in Kiev has been occupied by CIA operatives and Ukrainians could not even enter it without a special pass. They (the Ukrainian armed forces - TASS) are also fighting on orders from the Pentagon, receiving the most detailed intelligence data from there and coordinating virtually every artillery volley. Without this unique type of Western support, the puppets in Kiev would simply have been completely helpless, which means that following our victory those in the US who were issuing criminal orders should be punished together with [their] Ukrainian agents who have been carrying out such orders."
Andrey Klimov, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house) Committee on Foreign Affairs, added that, "We’ve been saying that the CIA is not just assisting, but is controlling this work. They took control over Ukrainian intelligence back in 2014. Not long before the Maidan, they basically infiltrated all the main ministries, including security. The question is why (the WaPo revelations - TASS) are coming out precisely now. The twist here is that [the article] was published in a major US newspaper. And this is being said literally a little over a year before the US [presidential] election. I don’t think that this happened by accident and this is definitely not the Washington Post trying to drum up new subscribers. This WaPo article about the CIA augurs coming shifts in Washington; this is about their domestic [politics]."
Dmitry Belik, member of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, said: "Ties between Russia and the US currently are already experiencing a rather deep crisis and the information published in the WaPo is merely the confirmation that the CIA has become a global organization with its operatives masterminding terror and sabotage attacks worldwide, frequently using the intelligence services of other countries. That said, the newspaper highlights that the SBU officers are responsible for some terror attacks against Russia while the CIA purportedly was against terrorism. That is, the CIA is seemingly disavowing any responsibility for those events because Washington does not need a direct conflict with Moscow."
Political scientist Alexey Zudin, a senior instructor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), commented: "The WaPo is one of the leading media outlets close to the White House. In terms of the content, there is nothing new here. [Russian] experts and Russian leadership figures have been saying this: The US is getting more and more deeply involved in the Ukrainian conflict and becoming a direct party to the conflict. What’s new is that the US itself is now beginning to acknowledge this fact."
Vedomosti: South Caucasus countries, neighboring nations discuss situation in region
A second meeting under the 3+3 format (Russia, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) at the foreign ministerial level was convened in Tehran on October 23, but in fact ended up being a 3+2 format given Tbilisi’s refusal to participate. In the Iranian capital, the top diplomats discussed the issues of regional security in the South Caucasus, the resumption of Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks and the need to expand regional cooperation in the political and economic spheres, as well as in the areas of security, transit and energy, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported. Opening the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that it may lay the foundation for establishing peace and eliminating problems in the South Caucasus with the participation of regional players and neighbors. "The war in the Caucasus is over and the time has come for peace, cooperation and progress in that region," he added.
The 3+3 format was created a year after the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in November 2020 as a negotiating venue for the countries in the region in order to resolve security issues and expand trade and economic interaction between the South Caucasus countries and their neighbors. The initiative was first proposed in 2008 by then-Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (president since 2014 - TASS). But, back then its implementation was not supported by the three South Caucasus countries, said Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). "At that time, all the countries in the region had unresolved differences in their relations with each other, both in terms of Baku-Ankara versus Yerevan, and [the fraught relations between] Moscow and Tbilisi following the August 2008 war," the expert added.
Iran’s interest in the 3+3 format is based on the fact that Tehran is seeking to participate in resolving regional problems amid the changes that are happening in the region following Azerbaijan’s victory, says Iran expert Nikita Smagin. According to him, Tehran has come to terms with the changed status quo and is making it clear that it is ready to participate in shaping the new regional order. "This is why the Iranian authorities initiated holding the session of the five countries from the region in Tehran. Additionally, it is important to them for Turkey and Azerbaijan not to infringe on their economic interests in the region, for instance, in infrastructure projects," the expert added.
Smagin pointed out that Tehran is interested in developing the North-South transport corridor, which would link Iran with Russia via highway and rail arteries traversing Azerbaijani territory.
Izvestia: China launches investigation into Foxconn, portending fresh escalation with US
Tax audits at Foxconn enterprises, Taiwan’s Apple "factory," may complicate relations between China and the US. For the US, this is an important enterprise that has an impact on the country’s economy, at least reputation-wise. Against this background, the US reaction may be rather sharp. That said, among possible reasons for the investigation launched by Beijing experts name mainland China’s economic interests, elections in Taiwan and even the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Most likely, the sticking point was moving Foxconn’s production outside of China, including to India and Vietnam, notes Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). For example, experts at Bloomberg calculated that about 7% of all iPhones are already being assembled in India.
"This can be related to an attempt to put pressure on the company in order to demonstrate the level of Taiwan’s dependency on mainland China and have an impact on decisions being made, for instance, in terms of transferring production capacities," he explained.
Another possible cause for the investigation is the election of Taiwan’s head of administration. This time, Foxconn founder Terry Gou is in the running as an independent candidate. Many Western and Taiwanese news outlets insist that, in this way, Beijing is trying to put pressure on Gou and have an impact on the election results.
"I am not sure that this has the key role here, given his election platform. It is actually moderate with regard to mainland China and guarantees peace in Taiwan. Gou is not a strong contender, even though he previously made statements that the mainland may put pressure on him, but he is unafraid and is ready for this. On the other hand, Beijing may see Terry Gou as an interference that may pull a certain number of votes away from more moderate parties and thus raise the chances of the [pro-secessionist] Democratic [Progressive] Party," Kashin added.
Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia Kirill Babayev thinks that the investigation above all reflects Beijing’s political interests. "The Chinese authorities are trying to show to Taiwanese voters that Terry Gou is not the mainland’s product, that he is not being supported by Beijing," he told Izvestia.
Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, suggested that it is not an accident that the audits of Foxconn began precisely at this time.
"China is starting a very crafty game. Now that the US is providing funds on two fronts (Ukraine and Israel), Beijing has possibly calculated that a relatively small amount is being earmarked to support Taiwan. So the Americans won’t have enough funds for everything. And, in my opinion, now China in general is testing the durability of the US approach. It is important to China to see Washington’s reaction, then it can decide whether it has a ‘window of opportunity’ in order to put the pressure on with even greater energy. Precisely now, when it is completely obvious that the US is sinking deeper and deeper into the Ukrainian problem and the crisis in the Middle East," the expert noted.
Vedomosti: Russia’s major steelmakers increase production
Russia's largest steelmaking companies are restoring production following the sector’s downturn due to sanctions pressure in 2022. Severstal increased production over the first nine months of 2023 by 5% year on year to 8.35 mln tons, the company said on October 23. Last week, the MMK Group reported a 19.5% increase in steelmaking in Russia (that is, not counting its plant in Turkey) to 9.61 mln tons over the same period.
Severstal Director General Alexander Shevelev told Vedomosti that demand for steel in the Russian market, according to the company’s forecast, will grow by 6% in 2023. "The main driving factors may become demand from the construction and heavy engineering industries," he explained. Shevelev clarified that demand in the construction industry may grow by 7% to 35.9 mln tons and to 4.7 mln tons or by 13% in heavy engineering.
According to Boris Krasnozhenov, head of securities market analytics at Alfa-Bank, Russian companies are already operating at full capacity and reaching pre-sanctions production levels at their Russian facilities.
Dmitry Baranov, leading expert at Finam Management, thinks that reaching previous steel production levels is possible by mid-2024, surpassing them by the end of next year. He stresses that stable domestic demand for steel is necessary to achieve this. The steelmakers can also benefit from demand for Russian products in new foreign markets, for example, in African countries.
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