MOSCOW, October 13. /TASS/. The US is attempting to contain any further escalation of the volatile situation in the Middle East; the EU’s top diplomat goes to China on a mission to convince Beijing of Brussels’ independence; and Kyrgyzstan rekindles its traditional ties to Moscow, but awaits a potential Western backlash. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia..
Vedomosti: US attempting to contain escalation in Middle East
Amid the ongoing clash between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Palestinian radical movement Hamas, on October 12 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Washington will provide emergency military aid to Israel; this was the key issue during his talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to Lev Sokolshchik, a research fellow at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, the US still has sufficient resources for providing military and other aid to Israel. As regards the prospects for increasing the volume of such aid, Sokolshchik told Vedomosti that this will become clear only after a new speaker of the US House of Representatives is voted in to fill the seat left vacant when Kevin McCarthy (Republican, California) was removed by a procedural "motion to vacate" on October 3, in part due to dissatisfaction within his Republican conference over Washington’s lavish funding for Ukraine. Blinken may try to convince Netanyahu and his coterie to refrain from escalating things further, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, postulated.
The top US diplomat’s Middle Eastern visit is aimed mainly at preserving Washington’s influence in the region and decreasing the risks that the conflict may expand, particularly through Iran’s potential intervention on the side of the Palestinian militants, Sokolshchik surmises. "The US has long been promoting Israel’s dialogue with Arab countries, above all with Saudi Arabia, so it will try to retain this fragile communication channel at all costs," the expert added.
Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council, thinks that Blinken’s success in keeping Iran and neighboring countries from getting involved in the conflict will depend largely on what Israel does next. "Nobody is hoping for peace talks anymore at this point; the main goal now is to prevent an even deeper crisis from engulfing the entire region," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Top European diplomat seeks to convince China of Brussels’ independence
On October 12, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell arrived in China for a three-day visit. There, he will participate in the 12th round of the China-EU strategic dialogue with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Borrell wrote on Twitter that his visit is important to discuss both relations between the EU and China and key regional and global issues.
According to Alicja Bachulska, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, both sides will try to suss out each other’s position. In her opinion, the EU is trying to demarcate its own red lines. Yana Leksyutina, professor at St. Petersburg State University, notes that during Borrell’s visit, general trade and economic interaction will be discussed, taking into account the EU’s grievances on trade issues. Borrell’s expressions of displeasure with China’s stance on the Ukrainian conflict, however, will do nothing to change China’s attitude, she thinks.
Artyom Sokolov, researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Institute of International Studies, thinks that the current goal of European diplomacy is to ensure that the US-China conflict has a minimal impact on ties between Beijing and Brussels. Due to the West’s recent policy course, economic interaction with Western countries has ceased to be seen as an unconditional good that must be supported and expanded, the expert notes.
Nevertheless, Europe does understand that a sharp rupture with China, as it earlier provoked with Russia, should not be allowed to happen. "The consequences of such a rupture would be serious and Borrell wants to shore up Brussels against any such potential crisis," Sokolov added. Undoubtedly, the visit will involve a discussion of Sino-Russian relations and criticism of Beijing for not condemning Moscow. However, if Borrell’s mission makes such criticism a focal point, then it cannot hope to succeed, the expert concluded.
Leksyutina notes that China is still hoping that restoring normal relations with the EU is feasible. The European track is important for Beijing in the context of the complex geopolitical situation and the impossibility of normalizing relations with the US to return them to the "pre-Trump" level. The expert added that with the EU, however, there is still room for restoring relations and China’s entire diplomacy is now focused on preventing their further degradation due to Washington’s pressure on Brussels.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Bishkek moves under Moscow’s umbrella
On October 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on a two-day visit. He held talks with his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov, bestowing on him the Order of Honor as well as taking part in a ceremony marking the 20th anniversary of the Russian airbase in Kant. The visit resulted in the signing of documents aimed at bolstering strategic ties between the two countries. Russia intends to invest over $3 bln in the Central Asian country’s economy. Experts think that the Russian president’s visit highlights Central Asia’s importance for Russia. On Thursday, the Kyrgyz president ratified an agreement on a unified air defense system with Russia.
Kubatbek Rakhimov, executive director of the Applicata Center for Strategic Solutions, said that Putin’s visit to Kyrgyzstan and his participation in the CIS Summit outside of Russia is a "positive signal" because nowadays the Central Asian region is acquiring an increasingly growing significance for global politics. "This points to the importance of the Central Asian track for the Kremlin. The creation of what is known as the trilateral union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as well as the launch of Russian gas deliveries to Uzbekistan are the key aspects of the promotion of Russia’s interests in the region, which has always been viewed as a zone of [Moscow’s] influence but hasn’t been receiving proper attention in recent decades," the expert told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In Rakhimov’s opinion, Putin’s visit will facilitate the expansion of friendly ties and boost Russia’s positions as an energy and, potentially, water and energy guarantor in the region. From the practical point of view, the upcoming winter in Kyrgyzstan will be relatively mild. The forecasted energy collapse has been postponed because the country is importing Russian electric power and gas and there is a possibility that Russian water will be delivered in the future as well. The expert also highlighted the fact that one-third of all first-graders in Kyrgyzstan in 2023 are already being educated in Russian. This is a very high metric in terms of the post-Soviet space, but not surprising given that Russian is an official language in Kyrgyzstan under its constitution. Yet there is another side to the international relationship. "I think that control measures over cargo transit will be toughened. This is why, if we stress our friendliness with the Russian Federation as much as possible, some sort of a response from the West should be expected, for example, the introduction of secondary sanctions," Rakhimov explained.
Izvestia: Experts forecast record-high growth in oil demand
A discussion of the current prospects for the oil industry was one of the highlights of Day 2 of Russian Energy Week, which is being held in Moscow on October 11-13. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that in 2023, domestic demand will reach historical highs, not counting the point in 2020 when the economy was recovering after the pandemic, and will reach 2.4 mln barrels per day (bpd). In the future, he expects further growth. In 2030, oil consumption worldwide may reach 116-118 bpd. Experts note that against this background, Russia’s raw materials will become more expensive and will remain in demand.
"We assess the deputy premier’s forecast as balanced and close to the current situation in the global oil market. The main driver of growing global demand for crude oil is the recovery of China’s economy after the coronavirus pandemic, which increases demand for petroleum products in that country, as well as growing global demand for aviation fuel amid restored air travel following the opening of borders," Freedom Finance analyst Vladimir Chernov notes.
Another growth factor for crude prices will be the substantial underfinancing of the oil industry. Foreign companies have not been investing enough in developing new fields, so production volumes will be insufficient, says Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the Reliable Partner association, which brings together energy producers and sellers.
Growing global oil demand and oil prices will boost Russia’s budget revenues from exporting energy products and new importers of Russian raw materials may emerge, Chernov thinks. "In the current situation, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and the Eurasian Economic Union appear to be the most promising," the analyst said.
According to Gusev, the fastest-growing world economies will become the main oil consumers in the future. "It is quite possible that there will be more interaction with Middle Eastern countries in terms of developing joint projects in production and refining. Supplies to Latin American countries may grow," notes Finam analyst Oksana Lukicheva.
Izvestia: IOC suspends Russia’s membership for incorporating new regions
The Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), at a meeting in Mumbai, India, imposed a temporary suspension on the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) for a breach of the Olympic Charter for violating "the territorial integrity of the NOC [National Olympic Committee] of Ukraine" by including in the ROC the Olympic Councils of the Donetsk People’s Republics (DPR), Lugansk People’s Republics (LPR), Zaporozhye Region and Kherson Region. Purportedly, this decision, made on October 5, violated the Olympic Charter, which says that "the area of jurisdiction of an NOC must coincide with the limits of the country in which it is established and has its headquarters." Now, IOC President Thomas Bach can legally refuse monetary payments to Russia and ban the ROC from sending its athletes to the 2024 Paris Olympics. However, these sanctions have already been in effect anyway, but now the IOC has found an excuse to give its discriminatory actions some more or less palatable appearance.
"Is there something unexpected here? All of this is steadfastly heading toward a complete suppression of Russia, including in sports," Valentina Rodionenko, head coach of the Russian national gymnastics team, told Izvestia. "There is one thing I do not understand: This has absolutely nothing to do with sports. This is pure politics. I think that we should be above it all. You see? Above all these shenanigans. They are acting like this simply because they know that we are strong. They are trying to weaken us, but we will get over this. We simply shouldn’t sink to their level and demean ourselves before these people," she added.
"This was an expected decision," Dmitry Svishchev, chairman of the State Duma (lower house of parliament) Committee on Physical Culture and Sports, said, commenting to Izvestia on the news from Mumbai. "The IOC would have found another excuse for the suspension. I think that the IOC decision should be disputed in court; all possible means of defending our athletes should be used. Next year, the World Friendship Games, the BRICS Games and the Games of the Future are slated to be held in Russia. Our athletes will have competitive practice and an opportunity to show their worth among the strongest. The ROC should continue standing up for the interests of our athletes in all possible ways, including in the court of law," he added.
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