Vedomosti: Russian, Ukrainian delegations agree to meet again
On February 28, in Gomel, Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian delegations held their first round of talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine and agreed upon a new meeting. According to Adviser to the Ukrainian President's Chief of Staff Mikhail Podolyak, "the parties determined a number of priority subjects with certain solutions mapped out." In order for "the solutions to have any opportunities to be implemented, the sides left for their capitals for consultations." The next meeting will be held in the near future, according to Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky who led the Russian delegation.
The talks started around 14:00 Moscow time and lasted over five hours. Ukraine was represented by head of Ukraine’s ruling party's parliamentary faction David Arakhamia, Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov and Podolyak. The Russian side was headed by Medinsky and included Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.
The main result of the talks is that the parties are ready to continue them, according to Director of the Fund for Assistance to 21st Century Technologies Ivan Konovalov. That said, it is possible to presume that the discussion touched mostly on political issues, such as the status of Ukraine, rather than the situation "on the ground," the expert thinks. Since the sides agreed to continue consultations, it seems that they found some foothold to begin dialogue, however, it is absolutely not clear what concession on the part of Ukraine may be discussed, according to Coordinator of the European Dialogue Expert Group in Ukraine Georgy Chizhov. He suggested that the sides may have discussed the status of Russian language as Ukraine’s second official one.
The decision not to allow Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to attend a session of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) in Geneva is illegitimate and counterproductive, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Other International Organizations in Geneva Gennady Gatilov said in an interview with Izvestia.
"We worked with the UN Secretariat because this is a UN event and it does not involve bilateral relations with other states, including European ones. The decision not to admit the minister is illegitimate. We emphasized this and we think that it is also counterproductive because it does not allow the Russian side to express its stance on important issues on the agenda, particularly, those of the UN Human Rights Council," he told the newspaper.
The visit by the Russian top diplomat to Geneva for the UN session on human rights and the Conference on Disarmament was scheduled for February 28 - March 1. However, it was cancelled due to numerous EU countries closing their airspace to his plane.
According to the Russian envoy, Moscow made attempts to cancel this decision with regards to the Russian foreign minister.
Gatilov noted that currently the possibility of Russia being excluded from the UN Human Rights Committee is not under discussion. "So far, this is not being discussed, however, any development of events is possible," he told the newspaper, adding that the exemption of any state from the operation of international organizations and mechanisms is counterproductive.
Vedomosti: Russia’s Central Bank bans transfers of dividends, income on securities abroad
The Central Bank has prepared an instruction forbidding professional market players from transferring income on Russian securities to foreign legal entities and private individuals as of February 28. Basically, this is a moratorium on transferring dividends and income on bonds outside the country. Additionally, there will be a ban on the transfer of profits abroad by the subsidiaries of foreign companies, a source close to the government said with two federal officials confirming this information.
"The sanctions that are imposed on us as well as retaliatory countermeasures will have systemic repercussions for all our international counteragents," the source said. The responsibility for these consequences lies with those who decided to use economic pressure on the Russian economy and citizens, a federal official who participated in the discussion of support measures told Vedomosti. A source close to the presidential administration concurs.
The introduction of countermeasures is more of a political than an economic move, according to chief economist of the Macro-Advisory consulting company Vladimir Tikhomirov. In Russia’s economic structure, the share of foreign subsidiaries in the overall volume of income is not particularly significant - about 10-15%, while it is impossible to assess it accurately since there is no published statistics. Yet, the mass departure of foreign investors would impact the ruble significantly, so these measures are above all designated to protect the Russian currency.
According to Vladimir Bragin of Alfa Capital, there are quite a few foreign investors in Russia and their massive sales facilitate the growth of volatility on the Russian market. Freezing the assets of foreign investors, in his opinion, will bring a certain relief to the Russian market in the short-term perspective and support the ruble.
Tikhomirov thinks that the Central Bank did not have the opportunity to intervene because it had no access to foreign currency accounts. In that situation, according to him, the ruble was "performing quite decently today." In his opinion, taking into account all risks and countermeasures, the ruble will most likely stabilize within the range of 85-95 rubles/per dollar.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moldova rejects NATO, may join EU ahead of time
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell does not rule out that Moldova may enter the sphere of Russia’s military action and intends to visit Chisinau. Anatol Taranu, Moldova’s former ambassador to Russia and head of Chisinau’s Center for Strategic Research and Political Consulting, told the newspaper that Borrell is concerned because if Russian troops occupy the Odessa Region, Transnistria will have a shared border with Russia. Russian aircraft may land at Tiraspol’s military airfield, joining the Operational Group of Russian Forces. In his opinion, the Moldovan leadership was acting cautiously in order not to harm its relations with Moscow.
The leader of the Social Democratic Party of Moldova, Viktor Shelin, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Borrell will come to Moldova, above all, to help Chisinau financially to accommodate refugees from Ukraine who continue to flow into the country. As for Transnistria, in his opinion, the republic is not going to fight against anyone or join anyone. "Transnistria receives cheap Russian gas and sends all its export to EU countries. An open support for Russian actions means getting sanctioned and being left without industry or export. Tiraspol does not need this. It wants to maintain good relations with Moscow, Kiev and Chisinau. The military action in Ukraine is bound to end soon. Russian troops will leave Ukraine. Russian and Ukrainian leaders will reach an agreement. Had Zelensky wanted this to happen, the issue would have already been resolved. Yet he was interested in his personal ranking with the EU. Nevertheless, everything will be resolved rather soon," the expert said.
He also noted that Moldova’s president, prime minister and foreign minister reiterate at all venues that Moldova is a neutral state and they intend to keep it this way. So, he concluded, "Moldova won’t join NATO but will aspire to be in the EU."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China urges US to join Belt and Road initiative
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that the US should reject support for Taiwan’s secessionists. Having reiterated Beijing’s customary demand, the Chinese top diplomat stressed that China wants to end animosity in its relations with the US and is ready to work with it in developing infrastructure in developing countries. He expressed this desire at a meeting dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the normalization of relations between the two countries. Yet Jacob Lew, former US Secretary of the Treasury, noted that 50 years ago Moscow was the main threat and nowadays Washington and Beijing should again battle against it together.
The New York Times stated that respectful, even warm relations had been shaped between China’s leader Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. They are based on the joint stance of the two countries that reject US hegemony. The events in Ukraine may complicate these relations. Former Australian PM Kevin Rudd thinks that Xi wanted to seek a balance between his friendly relations with Putin and the reluctance to show that China approves of Russia’s actions.
Head of Beijing's Center for China and Globalization Wang Huiyao pointed out that the Ukrainian events shook the Chinese stock market. However, Beijing’s official position not to criticize Moscow remains. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying at a briefing accused the US that it intentionally escalated tensions and facilitated the conflict.
Alexander Lukin, who heads the International Affairs Department at the Higher School of Economics, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta: "Although China invited the US to participate in the One Belt, One Road project, in reality it does not count on the US accepting the offer, since previously the Americans harshly criticized this initiative. Yet against the background of Ukraine, the Chinese want to show that they are open to cooperation with America."
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