MOSCOW, August 11. /TASS/. Military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Niger, should it take place, may last long and bring about a large-scale humanitarian crisis in Africa, Alexander Shipilov, a researcher at the Institute of General History under the Russian Academy of Sciences, senior lecturer at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations of the People’s Friendship University of Russia has told TASS.
"There is a rather high risk of a humanitarian catastrophe, if such an operation does take place, because it may last for a long while. It would become a new round of destabilization and chaos in the region, because ECOWAS forces should not expect a quick victory in case of an invasion. Their rival is strong enough and well prepared to fight in these conditions. And, accordingly, there is support for Niger from the neighboring countries of the region," Shipilov said.
According to the analyst, such a scenario of escalation would result in a serious regional crisis, which will "entail the greatest possible direct risks for the civilian population."
"There will be a risk of famine and spread of disease, which will hit first of all the most vulnerable social strata, the poorest," Shipilov noted. He emphasized that these negative factors would lead to higher mortality in the region and a significant growth in migration from Africa.
Risk of conflict
According to Shipilov, the countries in the region and the neighboring states will seek to avoid this crisis by all means. He believes that the threat of an ECOWAS invasion has so far been used by a number of interested states for political bargaining with Niger.
"I think that the stakes keep going up in the current bargaining, as part of the ongoing pressure," the expert said.
He drew attention to the fact that the position of the new authorities in Niger remained "quite vulnerable against the backdrop of the problems that arise from the economic blockade." "Niger is a land-locked country. In terms of many critical supplies it depends on trade with Nigeria and other neighboring states, so the pressure has turned out to be quite painful," Shipilov explained.
The analyst suspects that guarantees to preserve the influence of France and the United States in Niger was one of the conditions put forward to the coup participants during the bargaining.
"At the same time, domestic political concessions for those who seized power in Niger would be more sensitive, and they are not ready to make them now. For now, everything is developing according to the escalation scenario."
At the same time, Shipilov is of the opinion that an armed conflict "will not be a solution for the ECOWAS countries or Niger," as well as for "the Western mediators, who in recent days have been trying to persuade the new leadership in Niamey to make political concessions."
Role of France and US
"Of course, there is a role of external actors in this crisis," Shipilov said. He recalled that France and the United States still retained partial military and economic presence in Niger, although their resources in the region are "quite limited."
At the same time, the expert believes that "Western forces will not want to seriously interfere in this situation."
"France, for example, is not actively seeking to do so now, although Paris had a presence on the ground," he pointed out. "As for the US military who were in the country, the issue of their evacuation is now being addressed.
"To a much greater extent, the crisis situation in Niger is due to intra-state problems and intra-regional processes than to the more global agenda of the great powers that may have some interests there," Shipilov believes. "I would not exaggerate the importance of the external factor."
Possibility of military operation
Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara said upon his return from a summit in Abuja on August 10 that the ECOWAS leaders had agreed to launch a military operation in Niger "as soon as possible." He said, quoted by the AFP, that the chiefs of staff would hold more meetings to finalize details. Ouattara emphasized that Cote d'Ivoire would contribute a battalion of 850 to 1,100 men for the operation and that Benin, Nigeria and other countries would participate, too.
The Associated Press reported on the same day that the leaders of Niger’s military had allegedly told US acting First Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland that they intended to kill the country's ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, in the event neighboring states launched military intervention in an attempt to reinstate him.
In late July, a group of military officers from Niger's Presidential Guard mutinied and announced the removal of President Bazoum. The National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, led by the Guard’s commander, Abdourahmane Tchiani, was formed to govern the country. Bazoum remains in custody at his residence.