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OPEC maintains global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, 2026

In absolute terms, global oil demand is expected to reach 105 mln bpd in 2025 and 106.28 mln bpd in 2026

MOSCOW, May 14. /TASS/. Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.3 mln barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with the same level of growth expected in 2026, according to the May report released by OPEC. Thus, the forecast for demand growth remains unchanged from the previous projection.

In absolute terms, global oil demand is expected to reach 105 mln bpd in 2025 and 106.28 mln bpd in 2026.

Approximately 1.2 mln barrels per day of the projected demand growth, according to OPEC data, will be driven by Asian countries, including China and India, as well as by nations in the Middle East and Latin America. A similar trend is expected to persist in 2026.

This year, OPEC expects the strongest growth in oil supply to come from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, while the sharpest decline in production is anticipated in Angola. Next year, the increase in supply is projected to be driven by the same countries as in 2025.

At the same time, OPEC has revised downward its forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries in 2025 and 2026 by 0.1 mln bpd, lowering it to 0.8 mln bpd. In absolute terms, supply from these countries is expected to reach 54 mln bpd in 2025 and 54.81 mln bpd in 2026, according to the organization’s estimates.

At the same time, according to the report, OPEC+ countries participating in the agreement on crude output reduction slashed production by 27,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April 2025, with output being 68,000 bpd below the plan considering voluntary cuts and compensations.

Without Libya, Iran and Venezuela, production by members of the alliance amounted to 35.46 mln barrels per day (mbd). Considering all voluntary cuts and compensation schedules for March, OPEC+ nations were to produce 35.528 mbd. Consequently, the alliance’s production was 68,000 bpd below the plan.

Meanwhile some countries continued exceeding their OPEC+ output obligations. For example, Kazakhstan produced 413,000 bpd higher than the OPEC+ plan in April, while Iraq exceeded its planned production level by 72,000 bpd.

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