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Bank of Russia adjusts annual inflation forecast to 5-6.5% in 2023

It is reported that current price growth rates, including a variety of underlying indicators, have exceeded 4% in annualized terms and are still increasing

MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Annual inflation in Russia will be 5-6.5% in 2023 and will return to 4% in 2024, the Bank of Russia said following the meeting of the Board of Directors on Friday.

"According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will come in at 5.0-6.5% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024," the statement said.

According to the regulator, the current inflationary pressure is increasing. "Inflationary pressure is on the rise. Current price growth rates, including a variety of underlying indicators, have exceeded 4% in annualized terms and are still increasing. The annual inflation rate is also growing. As of 17 June, the annual rate of consumer price growth rose to 3.6% after 2.5% and 3.3% in May and June, respectively," the regulator said.

Earlier on Friday, the Bank of Russia has sharply increased its key rate after a long pause by 1 percentage point to 8.5% per annum, noting reinforced inflationary pressure in the economy. "On 21 July 2023, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to increase the key rate by 100 basis points to 8.50% per annum. Current price growth rates, including a variety of underlying indicators, have exceeded 4% in annualized terms and are still on the rise. The increase in the domestic demand surpasses the capacity to expand production, including due to the limited availability of labor resources. This reinforces persistent inflationary pressure in the economy," the regulator said.

The Bank of Russia added that it holds open the prospect of further key rate increase at its next meetings to stabilize inflation close to 4% in 2024 and further on.

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