PRETORIA, November 7. /TASS/. Tens of millions of people in Africa are on the brink of starvation in 2022 due to a shortage of agricultural fertilizer because of sanctions imposed against Russia by the United States and the European Union, according to a report from the African Development Bank, based on a study of the state of the fertilizer market on the continent.
The bank's study shows that since the beginning of this year, the fertilizer situation in Africa has deteriorated significantly. The shortage of fertilizer on the continent has been caused, among other things, by interruptions in their supplies from Russia due to sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, to which no African country has acceded.
Africa is heavily reliant on the Russian fertilizer trade. In recent years, the majority of fertilizer on the continent has been imported by Cameroon (approximately 48% of total annual imports), Ghana (39%), C·te d'Ivoire (28%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (27%), Guinea (23%), South Africa (22%), Sierra Leone (19%), Tanzania (18%), Mozambique (11%), and Kenya (11%),. Farmers in these countries currently face a challenging position.
This year, there will be a lack of fertilizer across almost all of Africa, but the western states of the continent now have the biggest deficit. Due to the lack of fertilizer, Burkina Faso is the country in the region of West Africa that is in the most difficult situation, with a shortage that exceeds 90% of the country's yearly need. Meanwhile, the shortage in Senegal has reached 89%, Ghana - 71%, Niger - 60%, Nigeria - 45%, Mali - 41%, C·te d'Ivoire - 35%, Benin - 23%. This year, there is a 56% average deficit of fertilizer in West Africa. At the same time, the price of fertilizer has also increased dramatically.
Grain losses
Experts from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) claim that this year's fertilizer imports have already decreased by 1.2-1.5 mln metric tons due to the Ukraine conflict, which began back in February. Due to disruptions in the supply of fertilizer from Russia and Ukraine, the loss of grain in the region in 2022 will reach 20 mln metric tons, or 25% of the harvest volume last year. As a result, the number of people in the region on the verge of starvation will increase by 10 mln to 48 mln.
The agricultural sectors of the Central African Republic and Cameroon are currently experiencing the worst conditions in the region of Central Africa. The cost of imported cereals is rapidly rising in both countries. About 30.6 mln people are currently on the edge of famine in the Central African Republic, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo as a result of a lack of food, particularly cereals.
Famine in East Africa
An extraordinary drought in East Africa over the last 40 years has already resulted in starvation in some areas of Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia in addition to significant livestock losses. In South Sudan, where torrential rains and subsequent flooding have ruined a sizable portion of the new harvest, a dire scenario has arisen. Russia was traditionally a major source of fertilizer imports for Kenya and Tanzania. The highest decreases in cereal production are anticipated in Ethiopia (by 21.1%), Kenya (11.9%), and South Sudan (11.9%) in 2022 as a result. Approximately 37.8 mln metric tons of cereal will be produced overall in East Africa in 2022 as opposed to 45.2 mln metric tons in 2021, a 16% reduction.
Favorable conditions in the south
Countries in southern Africa currently find themselves in an advantageous position due to the fact that the grain harvest in the current agricultural year will be on par with prior years. Furthermore, Zimbabwe's wheat harvest, which is expected to total about 380,000 metric tons, is on track to set a record. The only exception is Mozambique, where this year's harvest has been severely harmed by two tropical cyclones. However, 20 mln people in the area are still in danger of facing a famine this year, largely because of the region's skyrocketing food prices.
The low competitive demand from African farmers in the international fertilizer industry is another significant issue for the region. On average, fertilizer costs have doubled this year due to interruptions in the delivery of fertilizer from Russia. Farmers in North America, Europe, and Australia can afford to pay more for their products because they anticipate a larger revenue from their products, while their counterparts in Africa are hampered by a decline in domestic demand for more expensive food.