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Russian oil production to decline by 10.3%, gas output - by 5.9% in 2022, says ministry

Similar dynamics is expected in the gas sector as a decline in production by 5.91% is projected by the end of this year

MOSCOW, May 19. /TASS/. Russia’s crude oil production will go down by 10.25% in 2022 compared with last year, remaining below 2021 level at least until 2025, according to the outlook on the country’s social and economic development released on the website of the Economic Development Ministry.

Similar dynamics is expected in the gas sector as a decline in production by 5.91% is projected by the end of this year, according to the document.

In particular, the production of oil, including gas condensate, which totaled 524 mln tonnes in 2021, will decrease to 475.3 mln tonnes in the base-case scenario and to 433.8 mln tonnes in the conservative scenario by the end of this year, according to the ministry. Output is projected at 472.8 mln tonnes in 2023 (405.3 mln tonnes in the conservative scenario), at 476.1 mln tonnes in 2024 (416.4 mln tonnes), and 480.5 mln tonnes in 2025 (421.3 mln tonnes).

Both scenarios do not suggest that gas production, including associated gas, will recover to the level of 763.5 bln cubic meters of gas registered in 2021 within the next four years either. Particularly, the ministry projects gas output at 720.9 bln cubic meters in 2022 (702.4 bln cubic meters in the conservative scenario), at 720 bln cubic meters in 2023 (669 bln cubic meters), 730 bln cubic meters in 2024 (665.8 bln cubic meters), and 735 bln cubic meters in 2025 (665.1 bln cubic meters).

Similar dynamics of a decline by 2023 and further recovery is projected for Russia’s oil exports. The Economic Development Ministry expects crude exports to fall to 228.3 mln tonnes in 2022 after 231 mln tonnes in 2021, and to 224.8 mln tonnes in 2023. In 2024-2025 exports will grow to 228.1 mln tonnes and 229.5 mln tonnes, respectively. Exports of natural gas will decline from 205.6 bln cubic meters in 2021 to 185 bln cubic meters in 2022 and to 155.3 bln cubic meters in 2025, the ministry suggests.

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