MOSCOW, August 26. /TASS/. The novel coronavirus infection will most likely have three waves and it would be possible to return to the accustomed way of living only by the summer of 2021, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Center for Immunology and Molecular Biomedicine of the Moscow State University, professor Mikhail Paltsev said to the Telegram channel of the Russian anti-coronavirus internet hotline.
"Assuming that in the summer the incidence decreased and there are grounds to presume that it will increase in the fall, then yes, there are three seasons - spring, autumn, spring. And it is possible to presume that by the summer of next year we will already return to the usual way of life," he said.
According to the scientist, historically all viral pandemics were occurring in three waves. The first wave is rather strong, the second one is even stronger, and the third one is less potent due to the formation of herd immunity. Academician reiterated that, for example, the Spanish flu occurred in three waves (the Spanish influenza, the pandemic of which was the most massive one in the history of humankind) at the beginning of last century.
"It is believed that herd immunity begins to form when over 60% of the population have had the disease and when 95% had it, the infection disappears. Those are theoretical conclusions, but they are confirmed by the majority of authors, including practicing doctors. We’ll see. The virus is new that is why it is necessary to study, to observe, to accumulate statistics," the scientist said.
According to the latest statistics, over 24,000,000 people have been infected worldwide and more than 823,000 deaths have been reported. To date, 970,865 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 786,150 patients having recovered from the disease. Russia’s latest data indicates 16,683 fatalities nationwide. Earlier, the Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation.