MOSCOW, June 21. /TASS/. The Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) needs to deepen cooperation among its member states; potential tank deliveries to Europe spell trouble for Russia-Israel relations; and the US is alarmed over Cuba’s potential hosting of Chinese military facilities. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Moscow-led security bloc needs to deepen cooperation among member states
The foreign ministers of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) held a meeting in Minsk on June 20. They discussed the situation in Afghanistan, adopted a statement saying that an arms race in space was unacceptable and touched upon other international problems. Before the meeting, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had criticized the CSTO for its failure to take action toward resolving border issues between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well as the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, Vedomosti writes.
The CSTO’s hands are tied as regards facilitating a resolution to the border dispute between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as long as the two countries themselves refrain from engaging the other CSTO member states in efforts to find a solution, said Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Meanwhile, according to the expert, the situation on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border has stabilized for the time being and the parties are actively carrying out a border delimitation and demarcation process.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan issue is much more complicated, however, Pritchin pointed out. "On the one hand, the delimitation and demarcation of the border needs to be carried out in order to engage the organization," the expert noted. "On the other hand, Armenia’s partners in the organization aren’t ready to support Yerevan in the conflict because of their good relations with Baku, as they don’t view the Armenian government’s position as justified," he added.
Vitaly Danilov, director of the Center for Applied Analysis of International Transformations at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN), told Izvestia that in the current situation, it is crucial for the CSTO member states to pursue a policy aimed at further boosting cooperation. The expert did not rule out that the organization would grow in the future and could, to a certain degree, even merge with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). "It will happen because, since gaining independence, the CIS countries have come to understand that without Russia and a powerful military and political bloc, it would be difficult for them to counter regional threats and challenges," Danilov emphasized.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israeli tank supply deal puts Moscow-Tel Aviv ties in crosshairs
The consequences of a potential deal to sell Israeli Merkava tanks to customers in Europe are being widely discussed in Israel. Although Kiev is unlikely to be the immediate buyer, the potential sale of the tanks is undoubtedly linked to the situation in Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
An article in German weekly Stern boosted public interest in the question of which countries may be getting the Merkavas by alleging that Kiev would indirectly end up being the final recipient of the tanks. Such a move by Israel would mark a shift in its weapons export policy, which Tel Aviv has to date pursued carefully so as to steer clear of any initiatives that could potentially spark a conflict with Moscow’s interests.
The Israeli Defense Forces’ concern about the level of defense cooperation between Moscow and Tehran is, however, becoming a critical issue for Russia-Israel relations. "We can assume that global and Israeli media reports about potential Merkava tank supplies to Ukraine are, for the time being, just a means of putting pressure on Russia," said Alexander Tsinker, former Israeli lawmaker and head of the ICES international expert center.
Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, in turn, outlined the range of those EU countries interested in getting new armored vehicles. "As for the European Union members, some countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula are among the potential buyers of second-and third-generation Merkava tanks. They are looking to replace the Soviet T-72 tanks that they still have, as well as the domestically made ones that used to be produced under license in Poland and the former Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. There is also Cyprus, which has over eighty T-80U/UK tanks," the expert specified.
"The United States and the European Union are pressing the countries that have Soviet-era equipment to pass it on to Ukraine in return for appropriate compensation," the analyst explained. According to him, in this situation, the purchase of Merkava tanks would be explicitly linked to moves to turn legacy military equipment slated for replacement over to Ukraine.
Media: Washington alarmed over potential basing of Chinese military facilities in Cuba
Beijing and Havana are close to reaching an agreement on the establishment of a military training base for the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Cuba. According to The Wall Street Journal, this news has set off alarm bells in Washington, Vedomosti writes.
Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, believes that China can easily afford to set up a base in Cuba and provide Havana with economic benefits in return for its military presence in the Caribbean. In the meantime, there is also a domestic partisan political aspect to media reports on the matter. According to the expert, the WSJ is seeking to cast a shadow over the China policy being pursued by the Democratic Biden administration, which has proven inept in putting strong pressure on China, much to the displeasure of the newspaper’s readership among pro-Republican US business circles. As a result, the news about a Chinese training base in Cuba may be painted as symbolizing the failure of Biden’s China policy, the analyst stressed.
At the highest official levels, Beijing and Washington will continue to hold talks, to at least give the appearance that the strained relationship is moving towards normalization. However, in fact, the downward trend in bilateral relations will persist over the coming decade, Yana Leksyutina, professor at St. Petersburg State University, pointed out. In her opinion, Washington will seek to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific region in response to China’s Cuba initiative.
However, Magomed Kadzoyev, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that, "from Cuba’s standpoint, there is no reason to aggravate relations with the United States."
Vasily Kashin, senior research fellow at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), believes that "after all, it won’t get to troop deployment." "China’s policy in Latin America is designed not to provoke the US to take decisive action. The Chinese economic presence in Latin America is a significant factor, but in the military field Beijing is unable to confront America in the region," the expert noted.
Izvestia: Russia seeking its niche in new global economic order amid reglobalization
A process of reglobalization in the global economy will be completed by 2035, Izvestia writes, citing a report that Dmitry Belousov, an economist at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, prepared for the Agency of Strategic Initiatives (ASI) think tank. Based on the forecast, the acute phase of the global crisis will end and the new rules of the game will be agreed upon by the new centers of power, which may include Russia, economists say.
"As a result of new agreements, several [geopolitical] spaces will be formed that will be largely self-sufficient in terms of resources and military power, potentially based on a coalition formed around security guarantees," Belousov explained. Russia is seeking to become one of the new centers of power, the expert elaborated. To achieve this goal, Moscow is working to consolidate the resources of the post-Soviet states and developing countries around itself.
Today, it is particularly important to develop visions of the future and scenarios that will help society successfully get through the era of change, Sergey Cherkasov, strategy advisor to the ASI director general, pointed out.
For any reglobalization scenario to occur, a replacement for the US dollar must first be found, but there is no alternative to the greenback at this stage, said Olga Panina, head of the State and Municipal Management Department at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to the most conservative estimates, the US currency will continue to maintain its advantage over rival currencies over the next ten years, she noted.
In the next decade, Russia will produce 2-3% of global GDP, gain a more substantial share of global industry, and continue to actively trade with the Central Asian countries, China and, in some form, Europe, Dmitry Kulikov, director of the ACRA Group of Sovereign and Regional Ratings, predicted.
Vedomosti: China boosting volume of LNG imports from Russia
China increased its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2.3 times year on year in May 2023 versus May 2022, Vedomosti writes, citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs. Russian LNG supplies to China rose by 67% in the first five months of the year.
Although the position of Russian companies in the list of LNG exporters to China remains the same as last year (fourth place for imports in absolute terms and third place for imports in cash terms), Russia’s share of Chinese LNG imports in physical terms reached 14.1%.
Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman thinks it possible that Russian LNG supplies to China will grow significantly in the future. According to him, the European Union will gradually abandon Russian LNG imports in the next one to three years amid the overall growth of supplies in the market. "For Russian companies, it will be natural to respond to such a situation by redirecting LNG exports to the markets in the Asia-Pacific region, namely to China," the expert pointed out. Kaufman expects Russian LNG supplies to China to reach 8-10 mln metric tons in 2023.
Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Technologies, believes that rising LNG demand in China will be based on the increased use of gas in the electric power industry. According to the Global Energy Monitor data cited by Rodionov, China accounts for 20% of the global capacity of gas thermal power plants under construction, while the total share of European countries stands at nine percent.
China is one of the few leading economies in the world where oil and gas demand has not peaked yet, Kaufman noted.
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