MOSCOW, June 13. /TASS/. Washington ready for dialogue with Moscow to prevent another arms race; Biden administration pitches expansion of UN Security Council; and NATO struggling to find consensus on new secretary general ahead of Vilnius summit in July. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Washington reluctant to enter into nuclear arms race, ready for dialogue
The United States is ready to engage in a dialogue with Moscow on developing an arms control system for managing nuclear risks once the New START Treaty expires in 2026, the US embassy told Izvestia, emphasizing that Washington is not seeking a new arms race. The embassy also assured the newspaper that the US will continue to adhere to the fundamental provisions of New START as long as Russia also does so. Meanwhile, Russian diplomats told Izvestia that Moscow is not mulling any denunciation of the New START Treaty and that Russia will also continue to abide by the numerical restrictions stipulated thereunder.
"Instead of waiting for all of our bilateral differences to be sorted out, the United States is ready now to involve Russia in managing nuclear risks as well in developing an arms control system for the period after 2026. We are ready to launch such discussions right now," the US embassy added.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the International Relations Committee of Russia’s Federation Council (the upper house of parliament), reminded Izvestia that Russia has never shunned talks with the US side, a fact recently affirmed by Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said Moscow was open to dialogue on nuclear arms control. However, the question arises about which countries would be parties to the new treaty. Russia has insisted that France and the United Kingdom, NATO member countries that also have nuclear arsenals, be involved, but neither Paris nor London has yet made any active efforts in this regard. Meanwhile, the US is seeking to have China involved as well, but Beijing sees such demands as unfounded, given that China’s nuclear potential lags significantly behind that of both Russia and the United States.
Political elites in Russia and the US realize that New START is the last remaining mechanism for controlling nukes, noted Vasily Klimov, junior research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAN). "Currently, there are obstacles hampering the revival of dialogue on a replacement for New START, but those obstacles will be removed over time," he believes.
Although Alexey Arbatov, head of IMEMO RAN, finds it hard to imagine holding five-party negotiations in technical terms. He believes that a number of coordinated bilateral agreements may be signed instead. Such agreements could be between the US and Russia, or between the US and China, or between Russia and Great Britain, he told Izvestia recently.
Vedomosti: Biden administration proposes reforming UN Security Council, adding members
The United States is seeking to have six new permanent members added to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), but without granting them veto power, the Washington Post reported. Washington is already consulting with diplomats from the organization’s member states.
The US is not the only permanent UNSC member wielding veto power with an interest in expanding membership in the exclusive global club, as Russia has also put forward its own expansion plan. Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov said last July that, "it will be necessary to increase the representation of Africa, Asia and Latin America so that the [UN] Security Council could reflect the aspirations of nations around the world and be more democratic."
The US is likely to support adding countries that are loyal to it by a ratio of at least five to one, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. He argues that Washington is pushing for such a reform to consolidate its position at the expense of new permanent members. In his view, African nations, especially Anglophone countries, could be added, and the US could also attempt to invite Asian or Latin American countries, but the situation in these regions is somewhat more complicated, Vasilyev argues.
Under Articles 108 and 109 of the UN Charter, any overhaul of the Security Council would be difficult, explained Sergey Glandin, an expert in international law and a partner at BGP Litigation. According to him, the Charter can only be amended if two-thirds of the body’s 193 member countries ratify the relevant changes. Any initiator of such an overhaul, be it Russia or even the US itself, could struggle to gather enough votes to approve such a fundamental modernization that would effectively reformat the entire underlying architecture of the world order that has existed since 1945, the expert noted.
Russia could drag out such negotiations by putting forward its own proposals to prevent the international community from thinking that "Moscow is always against [everything]," Vasilyev believes. Russia needs the UNSC rostrum very much, and therefore discussions on how to expand it are quite possible, but it is premature to say whether they might ultimately bear any fruit, he concluded.
Izvestia: NATO struggling to find consensus on new secretary general
A behind-the-scenes struggle is brewing among NATO member states ahead of the alliance’s next annual summit in mid-July to name a successor to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who is already one of the longest-serving NATO heads in the organization’s history. The top potential candidates include Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
Strictly speaking, a new NATO chief should have replaced former Norwegian Prime Minister Stoltenberg, who has been serving as the 13th Secretary General of NATO since 2014, back in 2018, but Stoltenberg’s term has been extended twice since then.
The media has increasingly been discussing Denmark’s Frederiksen as the most likely candidate. Her status as head of government and her gender work in her favor, given the growing demand inside NATO to find a female candidate. However, some NATO members have long been pushing for an Eastern European chief, especially against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict. And yet, if the Danish premier got the job, the North Atlantic Alliance would have a Nordic secretary general for the third time in a row, following Stoltenberg and his predecessor, former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. As well, Copenhagen is lagging behind in its defense expenditures.
The other potential candidate for the role, British defense chief Wallace, is a man with both political intelligence and charisma and he boasts experience in a high-profile defense post. Also, he is the only British cabinet secretary to have survived the last three prime ministers. However, some nations - France, for one - would like to see an EU official at the post as they are expecting a closer partnership between NATO and the European Union.
Stefano Stefanini, former Permanent Representative of Italy to NATO, who is currently a senior advisor to the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) in Milan, told Izvestia that the race for the post of NATO chief is not a struggle between gender and experience in defense. "Two factors - personality and consensus - come into play. This combination is crucial, for a very good candidate will have to be approved by all allies anyway, which is no formality," he said. While approval can depend on different factors, in practice, a candidate can be vetoed by any NATO member country. So far, the race is still open, and no decision has been made yet, meaning that a dark horse could emerge, especially if neither Frederiksen nor Wallace gain across-the-board approval, Stefanini added.
"Sometimes, last-minute decisions are made, as was [the case] in 2009, when Rasmussen was appointed at the Strasbourg-Kehl summit. But I don’t think the scenario can be replayed in the given circumstances: NATO allies would like to arrive at the Vilnius summit with a decision already made," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: China reducing trade with US, expanding commercial ties to Russia
China's foreign trade volumes continue to decline amid slowing demand in the developed world, while its trade with Russia is experiencing strong growth, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs for the first five months of this year. In January-May, China's total trade turnover with other foreign partners shrunk by 2.8% compared to the same period in 2022.
Chinese exports shrank amid a slowdown in the eurozone and the United States, where interest rates are rising and inflation has been raging, says Igor Gerasimov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments. Despite the expansion in trade with Russia, the US and Europe remain China’s key trading partners, and any slowdown in those economies has a negative effect on China’s foreign trade overall, the expert said.
In addition, China’s trade with Russia differs from that with the US, thus precluding any discussion of "substitution," according to Alexander Firanchuk, a senior research fellow at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). While high-tech products and components prevail in China’s trade with "unfriendly" countries, Russia mostly exports raw materials to China, while Chinese exports to Russia are dominated by consumer goods, Firanchuk explains.
Sergey Tsyplakov at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) says Russia and China are seeing "crazy" trade volumes because Chinese businesses have been taking the place of Western companies that left the Russian market. However, he expects the process to stop in a few months and Chinese exports to return somewhat back to normal. And yet, he says, Chinese-Russian trade could well exceed $200 billion in 2023, or could even approach the $240 billion mark.
Kommersant: Russia’s current account surplus seen thinning
The Central Bank of Russia’s estimates for the country’s current account surplus are showing a steady, noticeable decline. Analysts argue that this could be attributable to revaluation of export revenues. Among other potential drivers could be that the ruble rate has deviated from forecasts amid the growing effect of one-off factors, including the purchase of foreign currency by companies leaving the Russian market and the Finance Ministry’s selling of reserves to bridge the budget gap.
According to the latest Central Bank of Russia estimate, the current account surplus of Russia’s balance of payments stood at $22.8 billion in January-May 2023 versus $123.8 billion a year ago. Based on the central bank’s main forecast for this year, the figure could amount to $47 billion at an average oil price of $55 per barrel.
"With the increasing sanctions pressure on exporters and the deteriorating situation in commodities markets, this forecast may be overestimated," analysts at MMI, a Telegram channel, warn.
They see weak foreign trade volumes and a dramatic decline in the trade surplus as reasons behind the recent ruble volatility.
Economists at Raiffeisenbank disagree, arguing that the volatility in the ruble shows that, apart from the fundamental role of the balance of payments amid decreased liquidity in the Russian forex market, one-off factors, such as transactions stemming from the exit of foreign companies or foreign currency supply have affected the ruble rate.
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