MOSCOW, January 17. /TASS/. Turkey puts Sweden’s NATO bid on ice, Germany's defense chief steps down, and Iran seeks to purchase weapons from Moscow. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Kommersant: Turkey puts NATO’s Nordic expansion on hold
Turkish Parliament Speaker Mustafa Sentop nixed his Swedish counterpart Andreas Norlen’s scheduled visit to Ankara Tuesday over the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) protest in Stockholm, which Ankara has designated as a terrorist organization. Before that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had accused Sweden and Finland of acting as a base for Kurdish subversive activities throughout Europe. Thus, Ankara's proposal to create a legislative procedure for the extradition of "Kurdish terrorists" might take months to implement, which would mean that Sweden and Finland joining NATO by the bloc’s July summit has become nearly impossible, Kommersant writes.
Unlike the EU leadership, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson did not remain silent and last Friday condemned the actions of the protesters in Stockholm. However, it was not possible to hush up this story. Moreover, Ankara used it to launch a new diplomatic offensive against Sweden and Finland, toughening its demands on their entry into NATO. Turkey's senior leadership has made numerous comments suggesting that condemning the actions of Erdogan’s opponents will not be enough to overcome Ankara's objections to their NATO membership.
During a meeting with foreign journalists last Saturday, Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin attempted to recreate the situation in the next months. He stressed that time is running out for a satisfactory solution to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership bid, given that parliamentary elections will be held in Turkey in May, followed by the next NATO summit in July.
When asked what Sweden should do, the Turkish presidential spokesman said the Scandinavian country needed time to create new laws that would allow the judiciary system to use new definitions of terrorism and take a clearer stance to send an explicit signal to terrorist organizations.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Next German defense chief might boost arms supplies to Kiev
Christine Lambrecht, Germany's defense chief, stepped down after numerous high-profile scandals, each of which prompted calls for her resignation. Nonetheless, changes in the defense ministry are teeming with peril. Chancellor Scholz accepted Lambrecht's resignation at a time when NATO-Ukraine military-technical cooperation is reaching a fundamentally new level. Both Kiev and Washington, as well as other allies of Germany, have high hopes regarding the Bundeswehr's arsenals, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
The principal complaint leveled against Lambrecht was that she was incapable of dealing with the obstacles that the Bundeswehr faced in the Russia confrontation. For many months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had to make excuses for the fact that Germany's military-technical aid to Ukraine was less than what was needed.
Lambrecht's resignation came ahead of major events. The German defense minister is scheduled to meet with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin on January 19. On January 20, talks will take place in the Ramstein format, which brings together countries that supply Ukraine with weapons. Both events will determine if Germany will supply Leopard-2 tanks and, if so, when. For a successful offensive, the Ukrainian army will require approximately 300 of these vehicles. Five countries have committed to sending these tanks, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. However, Germany, the country that manufactures the Leopards, has not yet confirmed these deliveries.
On Monday, it was unclear who would lead the Ministry of Defense and, consequently, negotiate the delivery of these tanks. At least three contenders were mentioned in the German press, each with their own set of pros and cons. But whoever is chosen, they will have to take personal leadership on the matter of aid to Ukraine.
Kommersant: Iran eyes purchasing Russian weapons
Iranian officials for the first time have confirmed the existence of an order for Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft, as well as other military equipment such as helicopters and missiles, Kommersant writes. The first deliveries are scheduled to begin this spring. Previously, Washington expressed concerns over the widened military-technical collaboration between Moscow and Tehran. They cautioned that this posed a threat to Iran's regional neighbors. However, neither Israel nor the Arab countries have made any public pronouncements on the subject so far.
"The Su-35 fighter jets ordered by Iran from Russia will arrive in the country early next year," member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Shahriar Heidari told the Tasnim Iranian news agency, noting that Tehran has put in orders for defense systems, missiles, and helicopters, and the majority of these weapons will be delivered soon. The Iranian New Year will begin on March 21.
US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby noted that Washington was concerned about possible arms supplies from Russia. There were no comments from the Arab world, and Israel was already concerned about Iran's growing nuclear potential and its participation in the arms race. At the same time, some local experts fear that Israel may be too careless about Iran-Russia military cooperation.
Military experts believe that the supply of Russia’s Su-35 jets to Iran would not seriously upset the regional balance of power. "The acquisition of Su-35s in the currently estimated quantities will only allow Tehran to rectify the situation somewhat, but the overall balance of power in the region will not change dramatically. Iran’s main means of deterrence and attack power will continue to be missiles and drones," Yuri Lyamin, an expert on Iranian weapons, told the newspaper.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India may emerge as main supplier of Russian oil to Europe
Western restrictions on Russian oil exports have resulted in dramatic changes. Russian crude oil is being sold for half the price of its world counterparts, and export oil production has been shifted from Russia to India. Russian oil companies will lose around 600,000 barrels of diesel fuel per day on the European market beginning in early February. Following the implementation of the European Union's ban on Russian oil products, India will become the main supplier of refined oil from Russia to Europe. Experts forecast a decline in Russian oil output and refining as a result of such adjustments, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to experts, the new buyers of Russian oil will divert their oil output export flows back to Europe. And India is emerging as the leading candidate for boosting petroleum product exports to Europe. According to the data from analysts at Vortexa, Russia is India's biggest oil exporter for the third month in a row, transporting 24% more crude oil to India in December than the previous month, or approximately 1.17 mln barrels per day.
According to Vortexa, a considerable rise in the flow of Indian diesel fuel means that oil from Russia is processed for its manufacture, and the product is then exported to the EU. While this approach does not officially violate EU sanctions, it does highlight their inefficiencies.
"The likelihood that exports of fuel produced from Russian oil stock will increase is great," head of the analytical research department at IVA Partners Dmitry Alexandrov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He believes that such a method is beneficial to both the consumers who launched the sanctions and all other parties involved in the supply chain.
Vedomosti: European Commission urges Russia to cancel Siberian flyover fee
Russia should stop charging foreign airlines for using the skies over Siberia when restrictions on flying over Russian territory are lifted for Western companies, Director-General of the European Commission's (EC) department for Mobility and Transport Henrik Hololei stated recently. Trans-Siberian payments are fees that Russia has charged foreign airlines since Soviet times for flights between Europe and Asia via Siberia, which makes it possible to cut the intercontinental flight length by around 4,000 km. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, both the EU and Russia would benefit from easing the restrictions, but the statements from the EC look more like a threat.
After the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, EU countries, the United States, and Canada closed their airspace to Russian airlines. In response, Russia mirrored the ban on flights by aircraft from 36 countries without special permission, which has led to the costs of airlines from unfriendly countries markedly increasing.
The statement by the European Commission looks more like a threat than an appeal, which sounds ridiculous amid the closed skies due to the sanctions, expert at the Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies at HSE University Fyodor Borisov told the newspaper. He recalled that both Russian and foreign airlines are suffering losses from the closed skies, so a return to "pre-sanction" relations is beneficial for both parties. "Europe is losing even more - several billion dollars a year," the expert estimated.
The Europeans have constantly and persistently declared the need to abolish "so-called royalties", Executive Director of Aviaport Oleg Panteleev noted. However, he added that most officials have forgotten that the payment mechanism is not a whim of the Russian aviation authorities, but a "long-standing bilateral agreement."
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