VLADIVOSTOK, September 11. /TASS/. Russia is set to become one of China's largest trading partners, entering the top five by 2030, Wang Wen, executive dean and professor at China’s Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, said.
The trade turnover figures between Russia and China are still relatively modest, underperforming the volume of China’s trade with member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). China-Russia trade currently stands at less than $200 bln per annum versus almost $1 trln for China-ASEAN trade, the expert told TASS on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
"However, according to my forecasts, by 2030 Russia will become one of China's five largest trading partners. I am confident of this. At present, Russia is China's ninth- or tenth-largest trading partner. Chinese-Russian relations and trade have potential," he told the news agency.
The expert stressed the appeal of the Russian Federation as a trading partner for China: "For example, Russia plays an important role in the energy sector; China imports about 10-13% of its energy resources from Russia."
Wang also noted that Chinese-Russian trade is having the effect of usurping the dominant place of the US dollar as the two countries have mostly switched to executing trade settlements in their respective national currencies, the share of which was less than 20% only five years ago. "In theory, the current trade between our countries is indeed aimed at eliminating the dollar from settlements. But de-dollarization is a very long process; it is a long-term trend that requires a wait-and-see attitude. But one thing remains unchanged: China and Russia are striving for a fairer international monetary and financial system," he emphasized.
Western predictions of "the collapse of China"
The Chinese expert also touched upon Western forecasts about the imminent collapse of China's economy, noting that the credibility of Western pundits and analysts painting such scenarios has declined significantly over the past two decades. "They predicted the collapse of China, which did not happen. Actually, the very concept of the ‘collapse of China’ turned out to be unsustainable," Wang said.
"In the second quarter of 2023, there was indeed a ‘scar’ effect in some of China's economic indicators as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic," he acknowledged. "But, from the third quarter onward, recovery has begun at an extremely rapid pace."
According to the Chinese specialist’s forecast, by the end of 2023 the growth of the Chinese economy will exceed 5%.
About the forum
The 8th Eastern Economic Forum is taking place in Vladivostok on September 10-13. The slogan of this year's forum is On the Path to Partnership, Peace and Prosperity. The event is being organized by the Roscongress Foundation, while TASS is the EEF’s general information partner.