ROME, April 18. /TASS/. Disruptions in the logistics of Ukrainian grain exports via land or sea routes, problems with transit through Poland and the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative will adversely affect global markets and lead to a rise in prices, FAO Economist Monika Tothova told TASS on Tuesday.
"Lack of transportation channels - whether on land or sea - will have an impact on the global prices, and well as future planting decisions of Ukrainian farmers with broad implications for the world market and global food security," the expert said, commenting on the decision by Poland and Hungary to impose a temporary ban on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine.
"There is a difference between banning actual imports that stay in the country, and banning transshipment of products what are later re-exported (although those in the trade statistics are often also reported as imports, and then exports). I understand that there are ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Poland on facilitating transshipment," Tothova noted. "The effect on the market will - obviously - depend on how the situation develops," she added.
"Should an agreement about potential transshipment under the umbrella of the Solidarity Lanes [European corridors for Ukraine's agricultural exports - TASS]to facilitate exports from Ukraine to the world markets via non-maritime crossing materialize, the impact on the world markets would be temporary. Should there be a broader disruption in the logistical arrangements, this would have a bigger impact," the FAO expert said.
"A lot in terms of potential market disruptions also depends on the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative facilitating exports from three maritime ports in Ukraine," Tothova noted. "There is a significant amount of uncertainty surrounding the future Ukraine maritime exports, especially considering only a partial extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in March 2023," she added.