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Oil to rise to $100/barrel by 2022, for 6 reasons — Bank of America

Among the demand factors that may affect the rise in prices, analysts highlight the deferred demand after lockdowns, as well as the predominance of private road transport over other modes of transport

© AP Photo/Hasan Jamali

MOSCOW, June 21. / TASS /. The price of Brent oil may rise to $100 per barrel by 2022, there are three reasons for this growth on the demand side, and three on the supply side, according to the report by Bank of America on the oil market, made available to TASS on Monday.

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Among the demand factors that may affect the rise in prices, analysts highlight the deferred demand after lockdowns, as well as the predominance of private road transport over other modes of transport. Bank of America also believes that telecommuting could lead to a "work from the car" format, and increase the distances that people travel in a private vehicle.

On the demand side, Bank of America sees, first of all, such a factor as an increase in the capital expenditures of companies to achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Investors have also begun to play a more active role in the energy sector, investing in both the financial sector and sustainable development (ESG, environmental, social, governance). In addition, there is growing public pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Bank of America analysts raised their oil price forecast for 2021 from $60 to $68 per barrel amid recovery in demand driven by the coronavirus vaccination process. The increase in the oil price forecast was also influenced by the growth of global mobility, supply constraints and the discipline of OPEC+ countries in the execution of the deal. The oil price forecast for 2022 has been raised by $15 from $60 to $75 per barrel, in 2023 the bank's analysts expect oil at $65 per barrel.

At the same time, Bank of America did not rule out the risks of a decline in oil prices. First, the emergence of Iranian oil on the market may exert pressure on the oil price in the second half of 2021. Secondly, risks remain due to the acceleration of coronavirus mutations and a slowdown in the vaccination process. In addition, analysts admitted the option of non-compliance with the terms of the OPEC+ deal, which could undermine the current trajectory of growth in quotations.

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