MOSCOW, May 29. /TASS/. Western countries had to accept Erdogan's victory in Turkish presidential elections because a color revolution would not have been successful, Dmitry Suslov, a deputy director of the Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said on Monday.
The analyst said Erdogan’s victory in the elections was "very unpleasant" for Western countries, but if the West had tried to carry out a color revolution in Turkey, it would most likely have lost. Any protests "would have sharply antagonized Turkey's relations with the West, worsening them," Suslov told TASS in an interview.
"The West simply came to the rational conclusion that it is better to accept it for today," he said. "While Erdogan is currently an inconvenient, unpleasant, and self-willed partner for the West, in the event of an attempted and failed color revolution, the West would have received a very serious enemy in Erdogan. This is certainly not in the interests of the West in the context of its confrontation with Russia."
Slim chance
The analyst said the US-led West prefers to arrange color revolutions when there are high chances of success. There were practically no such chances in Turkey, he said.
"If the opposition, with or without Western support, had tried to start protests, it would most likely have discredited and weakened the opposition itself and led to much worse results. And the West would have undermined its positions in relation to Turkey even more than it is now," the analyst said.
The analyst named several reasons why a coup in Turkey was untenable.
"First, the elections were fair. The fairness and competitiveness of the contest during both the first and second rounds were not questioned by anyone, including Western observers and journalists," the analyst said.
Also, according to Suslov, Erdogan has subjugated the country’s security agencies. The success of color revolutions is possible only "if the security agencies and the army, side with the protesters, or at least remain passive and wait," which would clearly not have happened, Suslov said.
The third condition for a revolution scenario, according to the analyst, is the presence of a passionate minority and a silent majority.
"In this case, Turkey didn’t have that. The majority that supports Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party is not silent at all. It is no less passionate than the supporters of [opposition leader Kemal] Kilicdaroglu," Suslov explained. "Therefore, usurping power by portraying the opposition as the only force representing people's interests would not have worked."
About the elections
Turkey has held a runoff presidential election on May 28, and the country's Supreme Election Council declared Erdogan as the winner, based on preliminary results. When 99.43% of the ballots were processed, he received 52.14% of the vote, while the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu got 47.86%.