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Armed conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia not very likely, says expert

Last week, South Ossetia informed of illegal construction of a roadblock by Georgia on S.Ossetia territory near the Uista settlement and demanded to remove it; so far Georgia has refused to do it

MOSCOW, September 2. /TASS/. The escalation of tensions on the border between Georgia and South Ossetia does not give reason to talk of serious threat of armed conflict in the region, department member of the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Vadim Mukhanov told TASS on Monday.

"There is no reason to talk of high risks of renewed armed conflict. There were risks ten years ago, a year ago, they didn’t go away. However, many reporters and experts clearly exaggerate the threat level. We are talking about one [Georgian] roadblock on the border of the Znaur District of South Ossetia. This step is indeed provocative, if you remember the history of the conflict and the tragic symbolism of August. However, saying that a new war will break out any day now is obviously speculation, it’s not reflecting the actual situation," he said.

However, the expert added that the situation on the border is still developing. "A South Ossetian drone downed by Georgian troops is not a very positive step. If there is no resolution in the next few days, we can talk about long-term tensions."

He added that Georgian politicians continue to exploit the issue. "This issue is important for domestic use. People accuse the leading team and personally [Chairman of the Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia party] Bidzina Ivanishvili of giving up Georgia, of not being able to find an agreement," Mukhanov explained. The Georgian side also needs to achieve the reaction of international players regarding the situation on the South Ossetian border, he added. For example, the US State Department has already provided its comment on the situation, although "the occasion wasn’t that major."

Mukhanov noted that the South Ossetian crisis comes against the backdrop of a domestic crisis in Georgia, which resulted in the resignation of Georgian PM Mamuka Bakhtadze. However, it is hard to find a direct connection between the events in South Ossetia and Bakhtadze’s decision to resign, he added. "The resignation of the prime minister continues the chain of events that began in late spring with the case of [Russian MP Sergei] Gavrilov and the protests in Tbilisi that attracted thousands of people," the expert said.

Situation in South Ossetia

Last week, South Ossetia informed of illegal construction of a roadblock by Georgia on South Ossetian territory near the Uista settlement. The republic demanded Georgia to remove the roadblock; however, so far, Georgia has refused to do that. On August 27, South Ossetian leader Anatoly Bibilov visited the settlement to introduce additional security measures.

Bibilov tasked South Ossetian servicemen to deploy additional posts in the border zone near the village of Uista. Armored vehicles have been conducting regular patrol missions along the frontier. South Ossetia also established its own roadblocks in the area.

Currently, the sides hold talks within the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM), which was established in the wake of the 2008 armed conflict. So far, the sides have failed to reach an agreement.